Possible Elliot wave counts for BTC based off these structures
based off the above split between impulsive and corrective structures, i am gonna give you multiple possible elliot waves count, bullish and bearish
Bearmarket Continuation (Black Hole)
This idea consist of an 5 impulsive wave down from ATH to the bottom of 15k and are only now in correct ABC structure to the upside to come back again in a 5 wave impulsive move
We split the move from 15k until 31k then in 2 impulses in A en C en an corrective structure in B
For this idea to be valid we should count an impulsive move down from 31k
If price goes above 31k this idea is already invalidated because wave 2 can not retrace lower or here higher dan wave 1
5th wave not complete
Invalidation = wave 4 overlaps with wave 1, so we can't go lower than 25,2k for this idea to be valid
Alternation = in this idea we can see a clear alternation between wave 2 (simpel correction) and wave 4 (complex correction) and wave 4 tends to be longer than wave 2, what you see here aswell
Equality = here we see an extended wave 1, so wave 5 should be the shortest wave and similar/smaller than wave 3 instead of wave 1 in an extended wave 3
Fibonacci Targets = 1.236 Fib extension around 32k for an support and resistanceflip from previous bullrun, we could theoretically go to the 1.618 Fib extension around 35k but for me is the 32k more likely
25,2k = were dancing above this level for a long time and is the only line wich can invalidate this idea in a matther of hours and its holding just even now after all this bearishness
Correction after the 5th wave is complete =
if we assume we start dropping around the 32k level we could be forming
A/ Double top = fast correction i could see btc going to the .618 Fib retracement around 20,5k
B/ H&S-pattern = longer sideways correction in an ABC pattern to the 0.5 Fib retracement around 22,4k
First impulse already complete
This idea has an a lot of confluence with the idea above with the distinction that btc already finished the A wave of a bigger expanded flat scenario
Invalidation = only if break the current market bottom this idea is invalidated
Alternation = like in the idea above there is an alternation between corrections and wave 4 is again longer than wave 1
Equality = here we see an extended wave 5 what i kinda like because commodities mostly have extension in wave 5 , and on larger timeframes is see also extensions in the 5th wave, you can see an example in my idea of lenghtening elliot wave cycles from the past
Fibonacci Targets = same targets as in the idea above 32,5k (1.236) and 35k (1.618)
Correction = the 1.618 fib extension measured in the expanded flat = 21,8k
and the 0.50 Fib retracement around 21,8k aswell
Distribution - Confluence of the 2 above ideas
Because there is not much expactions of higher prices in the above 2 ideas you could look an current price action as an distribution fase, where we expect an upthrust after distribution and trap all the bulls
in an distribution-fase we expect increasingly volatility and volume, what we did not see yet but what we could see if we go to the upper prices (31k) of the range and come back down (25k-26k) for an breakout of the range
Explosion idea 1-2 * 1-2 Scenario (Moonboy)
This is one of my originally ideas i posted in april when btc was just going trough the yearly close of 2020
the idea is still valid but comes more unliky because the second 1-2 wave is now taking longer than the first 1-2 wave
In any case if we see higher prices above the 35k region this idea is playing out for me, but for now the previous last 2 idea seems more likely
Bearmarket Continuation (Black Hole)
This idea consist of an 5 impulsive wave down from ATH to the bottom of 15k and are only now in correct ABC structure to the upside to come back again in a 5 wave impulsive move
We split the move from 15k until 31k then in 2 impulses in A en C en an corrective structure in B
For this idea to be valid we should count an impulsive move down from 31k
If price goes above 31k this idea is already invalidated because wave 2 can not retrace lower or here higher dan wave 1
5th wave not complete
Invalidation = wave 4 overlaps with wave 1, so we can't go lower than 25,2k for this idea to be valid
Alternation = in this idea we can see a clear alternation between wave 2 (simpel correction) and wave 4 (complex correction) and wave 4 tends to be longer than wave 2, what you see here aswell
Equality = here we see an extended wave 1, so wave 5 should be the shortest wave and similar/smaller than wave 3 instead of wave 1 in an extended wave 3
Fibonacci Targets = 1.236 Fib extension around 32k for an support and resistanceflip from previous bullrun, we could theoretically go to the 1.618 Fib extension around 35k but for me is the 32k more likely
25,2k = were dancing above this level for a long time and is the only line wich can invalidate this idea in a matther of hours and its holding just even now after all this bearishness
Correction after the 5th wave is complete =
if we assume we start dropping around the 32k level we could be forming
A/ Double top = fast correction i could see btc going to the .618 Fib retracement around 20,5k
B/ H&S-pattern = longer sideways correction in an ABC pattern to the 0.5 Fib retracement around 22,4k
First impulse already complete
This idea has an a lot of confluence with the idea above with the distinction that btc already finished the A wave of a bigger expanded flat scenario
Invalidation = only if break the current market bottom this idea is invalidated
Alternation = like in the idea above there is an alternation between corrections and wave 4 is again longer than wave 1
Equality = here we see an extended wave 5 what i kinda like because commodities mostly have extension in wave 5 , and on larger timeframes is see also extensions in the 5th wave, you can see an example in my idea of lenghtening elliot wave cycles from the past
Fibonacci Targets = same targets as in the idea above 32,5k (1.236) and 35k (1.618)
Correction = the 1.618 fib extension measured in the expanded flat = 21,8k
and the 0.50 Fib retracement around 21,8k aswell
Distribution - Confluence of the 2 above ideas
Because there is not much expactions of higher prices in the above 2 ideas you could look an current price action as an distribution fase, where we expect an upthrust after distribution and trap all the bulls
in an distribution-fase we expect increasingly volatility and volume, what we did not see yet but what we could see if we go to the upper prices (31k) of the range and come back down (25k-26k) for an breakout of the range
Explosion idea 1-2 * 1-2 Scenario (Moonboy)
This is one of my originally ideas i posted in april when btc was just going trough the yearly close of 2020
the idea is still valid but comes more unliky because the second 1-2 wave is now taking longer than the first 1-2 wave
In any case if we see higher prices above the 35k region this idea is playing out for me, but for now the previous last 2 idea seems more likely
