BTC & ETH: time to pay attention!
Bitcoin and Ethereum are at a crucial turning point which will determine much of what we can expect for Q1 2022! Tomorrow we have the biggest options expiration of the year and market makers have been preparing for it!
- Max pain price for BTC: 47K --- check!
- Max pain price for ETH: 3200 --- almost check!
Another fun fact is that Bitcoin found support right in the weekly spread of Dec 19, again what a coincidence. Weekly spreads are crucial zones set at the start of the week with the first high and low of the Asian session. Trading away to the upside usually means a bullish week and vice versa, much more helpful than any other trading tool out there and definitely not something they want you to know - they rather see you drawing your triangles and what not. Next to that we have both Bitcoin and Ethereum right at the fibs here which could act as support OR flip into resistance if we head for lower prices.
Ethereum:
Fell out of the symmetrical triangle, usually a continuation pattern and thus in this case towards the downside. Also lost local support trendline. Right now right at previous resistance (dotted line acting as resistance since 4700+, second highest price after ATH).
Bitcoin:
Also lost local support trendline, right in the dec 19 weekly spread which acts either as a strong level of support of distribution. Bitcoin is - unline ETH - trading above its previous resistance zone (coming from ATH) which could now act as support. However does not yet indicate a reversal zone, for now it acts as a true trendline with price fluctuating below OR above it, effectively following that zone.
Dec 31st:
For tomorrow we can not expect much action. The market maker will keep prices as is in order to hit those max pain prices, especially on Bitcoin - the most traded instrument.
Jan 1, 2022:
It will be interesting to see what happens on new year's day. I can only imagine two things to happen: a big pump or a significant retrace down; breaking below 46K for BTC and 3600 on ETH. A bullish scenario could pave the way towards 50K with BTC and 4K for ETH. Fun fact: the first week of January was a massive bull trap: BTC went from 12k to 17K in order to set the right shoulder and completely wiped out till 6K on February 5th. Will that happen now? Maybe, maybe not. What I do know the market doesn't look healthy and leverage is still very high, with bulls going long on any dip which means a short for the market maker and only more fuel to the downside. Real bulls know that leveraged bears are your friend, not leverages bulls. For a reference, just look at all those bullish calls for tomorrow, RIP to the all those billions worth of 50K+ calls, some even at 300K.
Always stay sane and protect your gain. ;)
Happy new year peeps, blessed for the support from everyone and happy to give you realistic analyses. xxx
IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
- Max pain price for BTC: 47K --- check!
- Max pain price for ETH: 3200 --- almost check!
Another fun fact is that Bitcoin found support right in the weekly spread of Dec 19, again what a coincidence. Weekly spreads are crucial zones set at the start of the week with the first high and low of the Asian session. Trading away to the upside usually means a bullish week and vice versa, much more helpful than any other trading tool out there and definitely not something they want you to know - they rather see you drawing your triangles and what not. Next to that we have both Bitcoin and Ethereum right at the fibs here which could act as support OR flip into resistance if we head for lower prices.
Ethereum:
Fell out of the symmetrical triangle, usually a continuation pattern and thus in this case towards the downside. Also lost local support trendline. Right now right at previous resistance (dotted line acting as resistance since 4700+, second highest price after ATH).
Bitcoin:
Also lost local support trendline, right in the dec 19 weekly spread which acts either as a strong level of support of distribution. Bitcoin is - unline ETH - trading above its previous resistance zone (coming from ATH) which could now act as support. However does not yet indicate a reversal zone, for now it acts as a true trendline with price fluctuating below OR above it, effectively following that zone.
Dec 31st:
For tomorrow we can not expect much action. The market maker will keep prices as is in order to hit those max pain prices, especially on Bitcoin - the most traded instrument.
Jan 1, 2022:
It will be interesting to see what happens on new year's day. I can only imagine two things to happen: a big pump or a significant retrace down; breaking below 46K for BTC and 3600 on ETH. A bullish scenario could pave the way towards 50K with BTC and 4K for ETH. Fun fact: the first week of January was a massive bull trap: BTC went from 12k to 17K in order to set the right shoulder and completely wiped out till 6K on February 5th. Will that happen now? Maybe, maybe not. What I do know the market doesn't look healthy and leverage is still very high, with bulls going long on any dip which means a short for the market maker and only more fuel to the downside. Real bulls know that leveraged bears are your friend, not leverages bulls. For a reference, just look at all those bullish calls for tomorrow, RIP to the all those billions worth of 50K+ calls, some even at 300K.
Always stay sane and protect your gain. ;)
Happy new year peeps, blessed for the support from everyone and happy to give you realistic analyses. xxx
IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
Comment:
*unlike
Comment:
last typo: Fun fact: the first week of January *2018 was a massive bull trap: BTC went from 12k to 17K in order to set the right shoulder and completely wiped out till 6K on February 5th *2018.
Comment:
Learned something new today, these options expire at the start of the EU session unlike the CME futures that expire at the start of the NY session. This explains that green dildo at 09.00 CET. I'm unimpressed by this move thus far and the further I dive into market data and especially I got a hold of some market maker info; my suspicion gets confirmed more and more.
I cant tell you where its going now, it just a big chop without any clear direction. What I can tell you is that you should be very cautious with this market going forward. You could argue a head and shoulders on the hourly on BTC but at the same time we could see a double bottom being formed. I'm closing off here and I did close all my positions already last night. I wont trade this weekend as I feel some scam pump might be coming. Monday Asian session open we can know more, now its just pure guessing in a low liquidity market in the middle of a chop zone.
Next week I'll come with some updates, also on YT.
For now, wish everyone a happy new year and the best for 2022, be grateful for what 2021 has given you instead of asking more from 2022. Always remember; what you have now is guaranteed yours, tomorrow is never a guarantee.
Bless.
I cant tell you where its going now, it just a big chop without any clear direction. What I can tell you is that you should be very cautious with this market going forward. You could argue a head and shoulders on the hourly on BTC but at the same time we could see a double bottom being formed. I'm closing off here and I did close all my positions already last night. I wont trade this weekend as I feel some scam pump might be coming. Monday Asian session open we can know more, now its just pure guessing in a low liquidity market in the middle of a chop zone.
Next week I'll come with some updates, also on YT.
For now, wish everyone a happy new year and the best for 2022, be grateful for what 2021 has given you instead of asking more from 2022. Always remember; what you have now is guaranteed yours, tomorrow is never a guarantee.
Bless.
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Bitcoin:
Also lost local support trendline, right in the dec 19 weekly spread which acts either as a strong level of support *OR distribution