Rip off the Band Aid at 16k to 18k
Multi Timeframe Analysis
Hint: The sooner we get to 16k, the Better
Technical Analysis sees two conflicting Harmonic Patterns, bearish and bullsh. Fundamental news based on macroeconomics will break the tie
Double Headed Narrative:
1. Money flow index in the green
2. FOMC meeting next week to address inflation and CPI . Growth could be limited.
3. Bullish Navarro harmonic pattern on the Daily chart indicating potential upsiwde recovery; but:
4. Bearish Anti Cypher harmonic pattern on the Daily looking at more pain
4. Traders Dynamic Index signalling multiple oversold cues
Expected movements: Double edged sword. Fundamentals will always overpower technicals. With confirmation of a recession marked with back to back negative GDP growth released by the BEA and escalating CPI, we can expect more outflows from risky assets like crypto
Recommendation: Continue your dollar cost averaging while BTC is cheap. Don't be the 2025 bloke who says, "I wish I bought back in 2022". A 100k BTC is definitely in the works for the long term.
Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution
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Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.
-=ENTRY RULES=-
Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do we long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.
Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe
For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line
For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line
Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.
About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).
Hint: The sooner we get to 16k, the Better
Technical Analysis sees two conflicting Harmonic Patterns, bearish and bullsh. Fundamental news based on macroeconomics will break the tie
Double Headed Narrative:
1. Money flow index in the green
2. FOMC meeting next week to address inflation and CPI . Growth could be limited.
3. Bullish Navarro harmonic pattern on the Daily chart indicating potential upsiwde recovery; but:
4. Bearish Anti Cypher harmonic pattern on the Daily looking at more pain
4. Traders Dynamic Index signalling multiple oversold cues
Expected movements: Double edged sword. Fundamentals will always overpower technicals. With confirmation of a recession marked with back to back negative GDP growth released by the BEA and escalating CPI, we can expect more outflows from risky assets like crypto
Recommendation: Continue your dollar cost averaging while BTC is cheap. Don't be the 2025 bloke who says, "I wish I bought back in 2022". A 100k BTC is definitely in the works for the long term.
Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution
------
Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.
-=ENTRY RULES=-
Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do we long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.
Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe
For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line
For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line
Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.
About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).