Falcon_Trader_1

Where is Bitcoin bottom and how to plan your trade?

Long
BINANCE:BTCUSDTPERP   Bitcoin / TetherUS PERPETUAL FUTURES
Following the principles of vibrations, and the concept that market repeats patterns, here is analysis on BTCUSDT .

Bitcoin started downward spiral from 10th November 2021, the high price of 69198.70 USDT crushed all dreams of people who kept an order for short at 70KUSDT levels, nevertheless, few made it possible and quickly booked profits. Most of CT influencers like Plan* and many others thought it would cross 100KUSDT , a slow clap and a big laugh, now everyone is crying, many of them got liquidated.

Crypto is hard on people who hold, and that is why RSI is your best friend. RSI on bigger time frames gives you many options and many days in advance to plan your trade. A stop loss, perhaps is crucial and crypto allows you to trade both ways, a long and short both can make you money.

Now coming back to the point, market repeats patterns, even if it does not it can give us a range, perhaps some levels and we can plan trade based on them.

Now Nov 10th, 2021 started downtrend, based on Falcon Waves (I have written about it many times, I will keep target for 5 waves down.

Before that, we had a top on 14th April 2021, when price of Bitcoin was 64986 USDT , and then after 5 waves down BTCUSDT resumed its move up based on Falcon Waves.

Important dates and difference between them is analysis that we need here, and then we will add Falcon Wave Theory and get the final result.

Falcon Wave runs in ABC followed by accumulation phase. Wave C has 5 internal waves that started on 14th April, we will first understand Gann Analysis, and time period difference and try to find some coorelation on current market conditions and draw some reference and add Falcon Wave Theory for current Market to find Bitcoin Bottom.

We had a top on 14th April 2021, when price of Bitcoin was 64986 USDT
14th April to 25th April (WAVE 1): 11 Days
25th April to 10th May (Wave 2): 15 Days
10th May to 19th May (Wave 3): 10 Days
19th May to 15th June (Wave 4): 27 Days
15th June to 21st July Wave 5): 36 Days
Important to note that Wave 3 and Wave 5 completion was about 63 Days.

The ration here is almost constant at 1.36

More on this:
11/15 = 1.36
15/10 = 0.67 (This is almost half of 1.36 (1.36/2=0.68))
10/ 27 = 2.7 (This is double of 1.36 (1.36*2=2.72))
27/ 36 = 1.33 (almost equal to 1.36)

Here , simple observation is that 1.36 ratio has been constant for top and bottoms of wave c which was 5 waves down.

Now using same method to find current market conditions.

Bitcoin started downward spiral from 10th November 2021, the high price of 69198.70 USDT,

10th Nov to 4th Dec (Wave 1): 24 Days
4th Dec to 27th Dec (Wave 2): 23 Days

The ratio here is 1.04

24/23: 1.04
If wave 3 is half ratio that is 1.04.2 = 0.52
23/x=0.52
x=23.0/0.52=44.23 days, therefore Wave 3 should finish by 44 days, that will be
27th Dec to 9th Feb 2022 (Wave 3): 44 Days (This is expected date)

Similarly, Wave 4 will be double ratio of 1.04, that is 1.04*2 = 2.08
44/x=2.08
x= 21.15 days
9th Feb 2022 to 18th Feb 2022 (Wave 4): 21 Days (This is expected date)


Similarly, Wave 5 will be almost equal to original ratio of 1.04,
21.15/x=1.04
x= 20.3 days

18th Feb 2022 to 10th March 2022(Wave 5): 20 Days (This is Expected Date)

So, next date for trend change dates are (for completion of 5 Waves down):
10th Nov to 4th Dec (Wave 1): 24 Days
4th Dec to 27th Dec (Wave 2): 23 Days
27th Dec to 9th Feb 2022 (Wave 3): 44 Days
9th Feb 2022 to 18th Feb 2022 (Wave 4): 21 Days
18th Feb 2022 to 10th March 2022 (Wave 5): 20 Days

Dates to watch, 9th Feb, 18th Feb and then 10th March 2022

Base don Gann analysis, 28th Jan 2022 also happens to be start of trend change, which should eventually complete by 9th Feb where Wave 3 gets completed, perhaps a drag of Wave 4 ends by 18th Feb and then 20 days to finish Wave 5 by 10th March


All this sounds long, boring and slow, however this is fast. This will be quick, and will liquidate many unless you learn Gann Analysis, may be read his books.

Some other dates that I will watch, 28th Jan, 24th Feb and 1st April 2022

What can be final bottom then?

Based on Falcon Wave C targets, we are looking for target between 26000 and 22400, if we plan to trade, may be keep some bids around 22400 levels with tight stop loss. Trade at your own risk.


By when can we expect this?
Wave 5 should end by 10th March 2022, if we reach target before this then we can look for placing orders for longs.

What are Wave 3, 4 and 5 targets?
Wave 3 should end before 26600
Wave 4 should end before 42850
Wave 5 should end before 22400

All these prices are marked.

Please note this analysis is not based on price action, and this is data based on on Gann Analysis, moon cycle and geometry with Falcon Waves.

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How to plan your trade?
Use trend based indicator like super trend, that is available on Trading View. You can trade once you have confirmation. Once there is confirmation you can place your order, following these dates will help you to plan.

There are some other methods that I use for trading, like Price Action, break of key level area, Elliott Waves (not much) as I have replaced it with Falcon Waves (Works much better), and also Gann analysis, moon cycle, market geometry that can guide us.

Take this article as one of key methods that can help you plan your own methods, and find answers in market vibrations.
Comment: Almost there.. BTCUSDT following pattern of Gann and Moon Cycle -

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