ec2953
Short

How to know when stuff are rigged ? NFP, indices, gold price ...

INDEX:CAC   CAC 40 Index
August 8, 2016

This is an abstract from my one of my blogs: http://www.lucky-index-trading.blogspot.com

Compare this chart with my previous publication and comments

So, from my experience, this is how it worked (and obviously I am merely stating a little portion of the big picture, but so far this "luckily" was enough to help predicting some moves based on correlation).

Last Friday's US Non-farm Payroll (NFP - August 5, 2016) was apparently rigged according to some sources. Well, we did not really need to know how the fundamental worked to know the blue print would be "good" and thereby certainly pushing prices up, as the odds for indices to head upward was higher than otherwise. Let me explain.

Do you remember the previous article I posted on July 31st, 2016? Yes, the one with the forecast of the CAC. So I was saying that a false breakout from the 4300-4450 range could occur (target: 4600). The CAC 40             did exactly range last week (August 1-5), going from about 4480 to as low as 4293 and now it is back to 4440 at the time I am writing this post. The trading range was perfectly supported by price action, supports / resistances, and so on. But moreover, if was also confirmed by the NFP's result, "fundamentally" pushing up on the CAC and making it soar from 4360 to 4410             , therefore confirming the 4300-4450 range as previously stated in article 174 of the blog).

Now, the SP500             made a new all-time record, and the Dow Jones soared along with the NASDAQ. What I mean is that it was totally predictable, because no matter what European indices had to go up, technically speaking. So in order to push the markets higher, data had to be manipulated.On the other hand, I made a forecast 2 years ago on Gold             ( XAUUSD             ), stating it would go as low as 1080 and then going back to 1367 (see article 118 + related charts). Since gold             price reached 1370, it had to pullback (ie. go down). Given that it is for the time being negatively correlated with stock market indices, then if the Dow Jones is up, gold             price will decrease. And this is exactly what we wanted since the target of roughly 1350-1367 was reached !

Therefore, from solely using gold             price forecast and European price forecast, we could infer that the NFP result would be good, and send American indices to the sky. This is in my sense manipulation, and the bubble will probably burst next year. My take is that indices will globally shift downward in 1 or 2 months.

CAC 40, Daily chart (see post from July 31st -> 2016-2018 forecast)
-> It exactly did start to range from 4300 to 4450 !
Trade active
so Gold correcting down to how much?
Reply
ec2953 pmcllc
Hello pmcllc !
I did not perform any further analysis after the bullish target was reached. But candidly speaking, in normal conditions (ie. no Brexit, less geopolitical issues and looming US presidential elections), I would have said 1250 but since Gold is not reacting too much to indices right now, this seems invalidated so far. So I can quickly deduce without further thoughts that people and algos are "playing" with European indices for the time being. My opinion (bias?) is that indices will start to head down sharply in a month or two (see this chart and my previous idea). Gold could actually soar, but given the uncertainties regarding the elections and more importantly the hidden problems that might surface in due time (prepare your popcorns !) it might actually be erratic. If I were trading gold now, I would short the top with a tight stop-loss, then buy the hypothetical pull-back until it gets back to at least 1350. Then wait for a breakout. Money management is key here. I could try to do some quick technical analysis of XAUUSD later.
Reply
ec2953 pmcllc
Some careful long positions can be accumulated around 1300 probably.
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