In this post, I will present a market analysis with a focus on recession metrics and indicators. Right now, many of them are sending a recession warning.
Home Prices -
U.S. home prices are surging higher at the fastest quarterly rate of change on record. (See chart below)
This extreme rate of change in home prices is occurring as U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage...
Hi everyone! 👋
This is my first ever video on TradingView . In this video, I explain how a deep dive into the continuing U.S. jobless claims (USCJC) could reveal that a recession is actually already underway.
Later in the video, I explain my thoughts about the future direction of the market and why I believe we're entering into a period of stagflation ....
The market has been rising a lot lately, with many turning bullish. We have a critical event coming that will dictate the direction of the market sentiment.
Market broadly believes Fed will reduce rate hike from .50 to .25. I have concerns with this conclusion
Unemployment has been decreasing regularly.
Inflation is reducing but still high.
We see a...
As you can see in the chart, Recessions tend to start when unemployment rate bottoms.
We're starting to see a bottom in the unemployment rate. Will we see a reccesion next? Let's wait and see
FRED:UNRATE
Yesterday, the FOMC confirmed the backing of higher interest rates for longer. The market reacted negatively signaling negative sentiment on rate expectations for the following quarters. Federal Reserve official, Neel Kashkari, who often has the most dovish views on market anticipation stated that inflation may have peaked but sees interest rates rising higher for...
I wanted to highlight how the peak (downward move) in the Producer Price Index (PPIACO) typically corresponds with the trough (upward move) in the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) (inverse correlation), as a period of Recession takes hold on the economy, & the financial markets.
I also wanted to compare the above correlation with cycle tops in WTI Crude Oil...
I have heard both sides: 1) Historically, the Fed pivot will result in a decline in equities because they are pivoting in response to negative economic data which drags on equities, and 2) this time is different, negative economic data is positive for equites because it means inflation is on its way down.
When people reference the former, for whatever reason,...
The British pound is sharply lower on Thursday as the US dollar has rebounded against the major currencies. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1787, down 1.07%. We continue to see sharp swings from the pound in November.
Jeremy Hunt's Autumn Statement was much more in keeping with the difficult economic times than the ill-fated mini-budget...
The British pound has reversed directions on Tuesday and posted sharp gains. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1902, up 1.22%. The pound has punched above 1.19 for the first time since August 19th.
The UK employment report was soft, with unemployment ticking higher to 3.5%, up from 3.4%. Unemployment rose by 3.3 thousand, down from 3.9 thousand but...
1) NEWS TO NOTE:
THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND THE BANK OF ENGLAND INCREASED INTEREST RATES BY 0.75% EACH WHICH STRENGTHENED USD AND GBP WHICH IS BAD NEWS FOR GOLD.
JEROME POWELL (CHAIRMAN OF FEDERAL RESERVE GAVE A VERY HAWKISH SPEECH A COUPLE DAYS AGO IN WHICH HE AFFIRMED THAT INTEREST RATES WILL BE RISING WHICH ALSO STRENGTHENED USD)
TODAY (FRIDAY 4TH) US NONFARM...
I'm just the messenger.
SPX - orange
Unemployment Rate - Blue
Indicator - Moving Average out of Unemployment Rate
This isn't a rule, as many sectors influence the market, but big crashes have been paired with a growing Unemployment rate. Here we can see that it bottomed and is consolidating - which proofs a strong economy and no need to crash - this suggests the...
This 1M chart focuses on the U.S. Dollar Index (green trend-line), which is seeing its first serious and sustainable pull-back after a long time as since September 28 it has been trading on Lower Highs and Lower Lows (not seen on this monthly time-frame though). This week the low completed a -4.50% from its peak, which is the strongest pull-back since the January...
GBP/USD is trading quietly for a second straight day. In the North European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1035, down 0.18%.
The pound has not posted a winning day since October 12th and has lost 400 points during that time. GBP/USD dropped below the symbolic 1.10 line earlier today, and a break below 1.10 will likely increase talk of the pound following the...
How long will the rally continue?
What to watch to answer this question.
7 October Fed Critical Datapoints
Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Numbers
If more people are finding jobs and and unemployment is going down it will indicate a strong economy, which will lead to the Fed continuing rate hikes, which will put downward pressure on the S&P 500.
If more...
If I take a look at the chart of ADP, along with the development of the broader markets (those charts not captured), I'd be on the hook to look at the Unemployment Rate being at the consensus of 3.7%; however, it it comes in at 3.5% as it did in August (where it referenced July), then you could see some buying pressure -- nevertheless, I'd be looking at shorting...
The yield curve seems to be turning around, in the 2006 - 2009 it meant that the Fed funds rate soon topped, that equities, inflation and treasury yields went down and unemployment went up.
Will it be the same this time?
Graph of the inflation rate with unemployment rate laid over top.
EVERY TIME that inflation has peaked and rolled over, unemployment has spiked shortly after.
If you wonder why Powell says things like "The labor market is unsustainable." it's because he and every central banker in the world (more or less) are trying to kill inflation.
Inflation dies, it takes...
2022 is most comparable to 1978 in terms of the current jobs & inflation situation. Seven decades of history concerning the 3, shows that the current drop in stocks is more likely a correction and not the start of a true bear market. 1972-73 scenario is 1 against 6 odds (and that's after demoting 1978 to equal the others). It also usually takes a long time for...
