Soft US NFP data put pressure on the DXYThe US dollar index faced continued pressure following the potential coordination of yen intervention and will experience further pressure after the softer-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. The Jun NFP fell short of expectations, expanding by only 59k vs 113k cons., dragged down by the Leisure and Hospitality segment despite the World Cup being held in the US. Despite this, the reading stayed above the breakeven point in the labor market, which drove the Unemployment Rate to 4.2% from 4.3% prev. The recent participation rate rose from 61.8% to 65.0%, which may explain the low breakeven point.
The soft labor figures eased expectations of a Fed rush to hike rates in Sep, and an interest rate hike at this month's FOMC meeting is off the table, weighing heavily on the US dollar.
Technically, the US dollar index fell to test the support at 100.56 and then rebounded, but it remains below both EMAs, signaling a potential consolidation between 100.56 - 101.10.
If the price breaches above 101.10, the US dollar index might rise to test the next resistance at 101.40.
Conversely, if the price fails to hold above 100.56, the US dollar index might fall further to test the immediate support at 100.24.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness 
Short
Silver fail to break the record highSilver prices recently surged as escalating geopolitical risks between the US and Venezuela prompted a flight to safe-haven assets. Concurrently, a persistent supply deficit remains a primary concern while industrial demand from the solar PV, EV, and physical investment sectors has accelerated amid structural supply constraints. Expectations that the Fed may implement additional rate cuts in 2026 provide further upside momentum for silver prices.
We now see that XAGUSD has a high correlation with XAUUSD within a 6-month period, at 0.98, but with higher volatility, indicating a higher risk and return. Besides, the incoming NFP tomorrow could heighten volatility due to the surprise of new employment hires, which are expected to increase by 65k in Dec 2025.
Technically, the XAGUSD broke below the EMA21 and traded between both EMAs, signaling consolidation, but remained in the uptrend.
If the price breaks above the EMA21 at 77.5, it could encounter resistance around the last swing high at 81.5. This scenario could be triggered by the weak NFP or an increase in the unemployment rate.
Inversely, price could break below the 75.00 to find support at the 70.57 level.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness 
Long
UK Unemployment through the lens of an Elliot Wave ChartistThought I would look at the data available here for UK Unemployment in the same way I would a chart for a stock accepting it is far from complete dataset.
Looks to me like a big 38-year A,B,C down trend in the form of a two a,b,c moves down and one countertrend 1,2,3,4,5.
Assuming thie figure continues to rise and breaks higher past (b) at 5.31% then I'd suggest it is going way, way higher .... to at least the 1.618 Extension level at 17.35%
That's a huge move but given the current UK economic malaise, the incompetence of the current government and the looming impact of AI then it seems entirely credible figure.
US30 Scaling Setup – Pullback to 48k Targeting 50,000 Year EndUS30’s near highs (~48,500–49,000), but a pullback to 48,000 looks likely as we await the first US unemployment rate release since the 43-day government shutdown—a highly anticipated event. Here’s my plan to scale longs and hit 50,000 by Thursday/Friday:
Setup:
Area of Interest (AOI): Targeting ~47,800–48,200 (around 48,000), a high-volume support zone (volume profile) with past buyer activity.
Confirmation: Enter on stalling bearish momentum (e.g., RSI ~50, MACD histogram flattening, bullish pin bars on 4H/1H).
Strategy:
Initial Entry: Small position (0.01 lot) at 48,000 to scalp intra-day bounces.
Scaling In: Add a 2x larger position (0.02 lot) at 47,800 if price drops, building exposure.
Target: Aim for 50,000 (psychological resistance) by Thursday/Friday, December 18–19, post-unemployment data. Close all trades at target or if 4H closes below 47,800 (bearish resumption).
Position Management: Trail stops to lock in profits (e.g., breakeven at +0.2%, trail to 0.5% portfolio gain). This trade fits my broader portfolio (e.g., XAUUSD, EURUSD), with adjustments based on weekly performance.
Risk Management:
Cap risk at 1–2% per trade, 10% portfolio max (per FTMO rules). Stops at 47,500 (initial) and 47,000 (scaled). Diversify with XAUUSD/EURUSD to spread exposure. Reserve margin for event volatility.
Key US Economic Events (Times EST):
*** Tuesday, Dec 16, 8:30 AM: Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct/Nov, delayed). Forecast: ~40,000 (Nov, per). Weak (<20,000) could rally US30 to 50,000; strong (>100,000) may deepen pullback to 47,800.
*** Tuesday, Dec 16, 8:30 AM: Unemployment Rate (Nov). Forecast: ~4.4% (per). First release since shutdown (September: 4.4%, highest since 2021). A spike (>4.7%) could trigger risk-off to 47,000; steady (~4.4%) may support 50,000.
*** Tuesday, Dec 16, 8:30 AM: Retail Sales (Nov). Forecast: +0.4% m/m (per). Weak (<0.2%) may push to 47,000; strong (>0.6%) could delay pullback.
*** Thursday, Dec 18, 8:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Dec 13). Forecast: ~220K (per). High (>250K) supports US30; low (<200K) caps upside.
Market Context:
US30’s up 17% YTD but faces resistance at 50,000 (per,). RSI (~55) and MACD flattening suggest a pullback to 48,000, a high-volume zone (November 2025, per,). The Nov unemployment rate (Tuesday), the first since the shutdown, is a major catalyst—steady data could fuel a rally to 50,000; a spike may trigger risk-off. Volatility’s 1–2% daily (~500–1000 points), ideal for scaling longs post-data.
Risk Warning:
The unemployment rate release could spike volatility. Keep risk at 1–2% per trade, diversify, and use tight stops. Trade your plan!
What’s your US30 play this week? Share your setups below!
#US30 #DowJones #Scalping #Unemployment #EconomicEvents XAUAUD has more upside potentialGold prices extended gains amid escalating tariff tensions between the US and China, after China sanctioned shipping and the US President affirmed the commitment to maintaining high tariffs on Chinese goods.
Meanwhile, the US government shutdown may introduce additional uncertainty regarding the timeliness of monetary policy in addressing the recently weakening labor market. The postponement of the Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) report raises further concern, as the Fed requires more data to determine its primary focus between the labor market and inflation—its dual mandate—which are currently diverging. Elevated inflation, driven by recent trade policies, requires the Fed to evaluate whether the price increases are transitory or if they will become prolonged and spread to sectors beyond tariff-sensitive goods.
Markets are currently pricing in two additional rate cuts this year but remain uncertain about the outlook for next year, with some Fed officials signaling a cautious stance. Should the labor market continue to deteriorate while inflation remains elevated, the US economy could face stagnation, creating a favorable environment for gold.
In Australia, recent labor data has increased economic uncertainty. The unemployment rate for Sep rose to a four-year high of 4.5% from 4.3% in the previous month, driven by a decrease in job openings and an increase in job seekers concerned about future income prospects. The weakening labor market has lifted market expectations for an RBA rate cut in Nov to over 70% from a previous reading of 40%, weighing on the Australian dollar.
From a technical perspective, XAUAUD is trading within an upward range with expanding EMAs (21,78), indicating strong bullish momentum, though it may face pressure from profit-taking. A breakout above the Fibonacci Extension 361.8% at 6588 could see the price target the Fibonacci Extension 423.6% at 6866. Conversely, a failure to breach the 6588 level could result in a decline to test the support at 6140.
By Van Ha Trinh, Financial Market Strategist at Exness
Critical jobs data you need to watch this week Fresh labor market data will likely be the focus this week, with payrolls, unemployment, and wage growth all carrying weight for the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Stronger-than-expected job reports could revive dollar demand, while weaker figures may keep pressure on the greenback as markets price in further Fed easing.
Nonfarm payrolls for September are projected at 39K, a modest improvement from August’s 22K, but still far below the levels seen through most of 2023 and earlier years (chart, top left).
The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3% (chart, top right).
Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% month-on-month, matching August’s gain. That would keep annual wage growth steady, reflecting sticky wage pressures even as job creation softens.
The JOLTS job openings series remains elevated at 7.3 million (chart, bottom left), but still well below the peaks of 2022. This suggests firms are slower to post new jobs, but demand has not collapsed entirely.
British pound hits two-month high, UK job dataThe British pound has started the new trading week in positive territory. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3591, up 0.26% on the day. Earlier, the pound hit a daily high of 1.3620, its highest level since July 10.
The UK releases employment data on Tuesday. Claimant counts is expected to jump to 20.3 thousand in August, after a rare decline in July which saw claimant counts decline by 6.2 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.7% for a third straight time, its highest level in four years.
Wage growth including bonuses is expected to rise to 4.7%, up from 4.6% in the previous release, which was the lowest pace in nine months.
It's a busy week in the UK, with the inflation report on Wednesday and the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday. The BoE is expected to maintain rates at 4.0% after last month's narrow 5-4 decision to lower rates. Governor Bailey has said rates would move "downwards gradually over time" but hasn't provided any details as to the timing or extent of cuts.
The UK may have already entered stagflation, which is a toxic mix of persistently high inflation, weak growth and rising unemployment. This presents a major headache for the BoE, as weak growth supports a rate cut while high inflation could get worse if the BoE reduces rates.
The central bank is hesitant to lower rates with inflation close to 4%, but may have to cut before the end of the year if the labor market continues to deteriorate. Tuesday's job report is unlikely to change minds at the BoE, which is expected to hold rates. Still, it could be a factor in the November rate decision.
GBPUSD has pushed above resistance at 1.3564 and is testing 1.3589 Above, there is resistance at 1.3605
There is support at 1.3548
UK retail sales beat estimate, US nonfarm payrolls sink, pound jThe British pound has pushed higher on Friday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3519, up 0.66% on the day. About half the pound's gains have come following today's weak US nonfarm payrolls report.
It was a good-news-bad news retail sales report out of the UK today. July retail sales rose a respectable 0.6% m/m, up from a downwardly revised 0.3% in June and higher than the market estimate of 0.2%. The improvement was driven by warm weather and the women's European soccer championship.
The bad news was the sharp downward corrections to the the previous months' data. Retail sales for June was revised lower to 0.3% from 0.9%. Annualized retail sales posted a with a gain of 1.1%, missing the market estimate of 1.3%. This was above the June reading of 0.9%, which was revised from 1.7%.
All eyes were on today's US nonfarm payrolls, which disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021.
Employers remain cautious about hiring in an uncertain economic environment and the Trump tariffs aren't helping to restore confidence.
This key employment release has taken on double significance, coming shortly before the next Federal Reserve meeting on September 17. There could be calls for the Fed to consider a jumbo half-point cut as the labor market is cooling quickly, although the most likely scenario is a modest quarter-point cut.
GBP/USD has pushed above several resistance lines and is testing 1.3499. Next, there is resistance at 1.3552
1.3415 and 1.3395 are providing support USDJPY longs due to better than expected Eco dataFor the week ending August 23, 2025, U.S. initial jobless claims were 229,000, below the forecast of 231,000 and down from the previous week's revised figure of 234,000. This suggests a slight improvement in new unemployment filings.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent (0.8 percent at a quarterly rate) in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Due to the above data being better than expected, we can expect the dollar to increase in strength over the short term. D
G
Behind the Curtain: Bitcoin’s Surprising Macro Triggers1. Introduction
Bitcoin Futures (BTC), once viewed as a niche or speculative product, have now entered the macroeconomic spotlight. Traded on the CME and embraced by institutions through ETF exposure, BTC Futures reflect not only digital asset sentiment—but also evolving reactions to traditional economic forces.
While many traders still associate Bitcoin with crypto-native catalysts, machine learning reveals a different story. Today, BTC responds dynamically to macro indicators like Treasury yields, labor data, and liquidity trends.
In this article, we apply a Random Forest Regressor to historical data to uncover the top economic signals impacting Bitcoin Futures returns across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes—some of which may surprise even seasoned macro traders.
2. Understanding Bitcoin Futures Contracts
Bitcoin Futures provide institutional-grade access to BTC price movements—with efficient clearing and capital flexibility.
o Standard BTC Futures (BTC):
Tick Size: $5 per tick = $25 per tick per contract
Initial Margin: ≈ $102,000 (subject to volatility)
o Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT):
Contract Size: 1/50th the BTC size
Tick Size: $5 = $0.50 per tick per contract
Initial Margin: ≈ $2,000
BTC and MBT trade nearly 24 hours per day, five days a week, offering deep liquidity and expanding participation across hedge funds, asset managers, and active retail traders.
3. Daily Timeframe: Short-Term Macro Sensitivity
Bitcoin’s volatility makes it highly reactive to daily data surprises, especially those affecting liquidity and rates.
Velocity of Money (M2): This lesser-watched indicator captures how quickly money circulates. Rising velocity can signal renewed risk-taking, often leading to short-term BTC movements. A declining M2 velocity implies tightening conditions, potentially pressuring BTC as risk appetite contracts.
10-Year Treasury Yield: One of the most sensitive intraday indicators for BTC. Yield spikes make holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin potentially less attractive. Declining yields could signal easing financial conditions, inviting capital back into crypto.
Labor Force Participation Rate: While not a headline number, sudden shifts in labor force data can affect consumer confidence and policy tone—especially if they suggest a weakening economy. Bitcoin could react positively when data implies future easing.
4. Weekly Timeframe: Labor-Driven Market Reactions
As BTC increasingly correlates with traditional markets, weekly economic data—especially related to labor—has become a mid-term directional driver.
Initial Jobless Claims: Spikes in this metric can indicate rising economic stress. BTC could react defensively to rising claims, but may rally on drops, especially when seen as signs of stability returning.
ISM Manufacturing Employment: This metric reflects hiring strength in the manufacturing sector. Slowing employment growth here could correlate with broader economic softening—something BTC traders can track as part of their risk sentiment gauge.
Continuing Jobless Claims: Tracks the persistence of unemployment. Sustained increases can shake risk markets and pull BTC lower, while ongoing declines suggest an improving outlook, which could help BTC resume upward movement.
5. Monthly Timeframe: Macro Structural Themes
Institutional positioning in Bitcoin increasingly aligns with high-impact monthly data. These indicators help shape longer-term views on liquidity, rate policy, and capital allocation:
Unemployment Rate: A rising unemployment rate could shift market expectations toward a more accommodative monetary policy. Bitcoin, often viewed as a hedge against fiat debasement and monetary easing, can benefit from this shift. In contrast, a low and steady unemployment rate may pressure BTC as it reinforces the case for higher interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (again): On a monthly basis, this repeats and become a cornerstone macro theme.
Initial Jobless Claims (again): Rather than individual weekly prints, the broader trend reveals structural shifts in the labor market.
6. Style-Based Strategy Insights
Bitcoin traders often span a wide range of styles—from short-term volatility hunters to long-duration macro allocators. Aligning indicator focus by style is essential:
o Day Traders
Zero in on M2 velocity and 10-Year Yield to time intraday reversals or continuation setups.
Quick pivots in bond yields or liquidity metrics could coincide with BTC spikes.
o Swing Traders
Use Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Employment trends to track momentum for 3–10 day moves.
Weekly data may help catch directional shifts before they appear in price charts.
o Position Traders
Monitor macro structure via Unemployment Rate, 10Y Yield, and Initial Claims.
These traders align portfolios based on broader economic trends, often holding exposure through cycles.
7. Risk Management Commentary
Bitcoin Futures demand tactical risk management:
Use Micro BTC Contracts (MBT) to scale in or out of trades precisely.
Expect volatility around macro data releases—set wider stops with volatility-adjusted sizing.
Avoid over-positioning near major Fed meetings, CPI prints, or labor reports.
Unlike legacy markets, BTC can make multi-percent intraday moves. A robust risk plan isn’t optional—it’s survival.
8. Conclusion
Bitcoin has matured into a macro-responsive asset. What once moved on hype now responds to the pulse of the global economy. From M2 liquidity flows and interest rate expectations, to labor market stability, BTC Futures reflect institutional sentiment shaped by data.
BTC’s role in the modern portfolio is still evolving. But one thing is clear: macro matters. And those who understand which indicators truly move Bitcoin can trade with more confidence and precision.
Stay tuned for the next edition of the "Behind the Curtain" series as we decode the economic machinery behind another CME futures product.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses. 
Education
Short
D
US Unemployed to Employed as Indicator of Job Market HealthIn this chart, we use the following symbols: ECONOMICS:USNFP , FRED:UNEMPLOY
ECONOMICS:USNFP represents the number of jobs created in a month. FRED:UNEMPLOY represents the number of unemployed individuals for a month.
Assuming exactly 1 payroll per person , the ratio 100 * ECONOMICS:USNFP / ( FRED:UNEMPLOY + ECONOMICS:USNFP ) estimates the percentage of previously unemployed individuals who transitioned to employment in the month. If enough jobs are created, the current FRED:UNEMPLOY should equal the previous month's FRED:UNEMPLOY minus ECONOMICS:USNFP , as the jobs created should correspond to the unemployed who found work.
When sufficient jobs are created, the number of unemployed decreases, and the ratio increases. A "healthy" value for this ratio is around 2.5% , indicating that approximately 2.5% of unemployed individuals transition to employment each month .
Conversely, if insufficient jobs are created, the number of unemployed rises, and the ratio decreases. Ratios around 0% or negative values are usually observed during or before recessions, indicating an unhealthy job market .
For last two consecutive months, the ratio has been 0.17% , suggesting an unhealthy job market . Similar patterns were observed before the DotCom and GFC recessions. If this trend continues for several months, it strongly suggests that the US is either on the verge of or already in a recession.
Historically, when the 30-week SMA crosses below the 50-week SMA, it signals a recession. This signal was triggered in June '24. EUR/USD shrugs as eurozone CPI rises to 2%The euro is flat on Thursday after three straight winning days. In the European session, EUR/USD is unchanged on the day, trading at 1.0854.
Eurozone inflation rose to 2% y/y in October, up from 1.7% in September and above the market estimate of 1.9%. This was the fastest increase since April. The main drivers of the inflation increase were services and food prices. Services inflation continues to be a headache for the European Central Bank, unchanged at 3.9% and almost double the target. Monthly, CPI rose 0.3% after a 0.1% decline in September. Core CPI remained at 2.7% y/y, just above the market estimate of 2.6% and the lowest level since February 2022.
How will the European Central Bank react to the inflation report? The central bank has been in the forefront of the rate-cutting trend, having lowered interest rates three times this year. The ECB is expected to trim rates at the December meeting, although the October inflation data indicates that inflation has not yet been fully contained. ECB President Lagarde said after the inflation release that she expects inflation will sustainably reach the 2% target in 2025.
The eurozone labor market remains strong despite a sluggish economy. Thursday’s unemployment report showed the unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in September, down from 6.4% in August and the lowest level since the eurozone was establish in 1999. The ECB, like other major central banks, will have to balance a strong labor market against weakening inflation as it determines its rate path for the coming months.
EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0885 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.0913
1.0842 and 1.0814 are the next support levels 
Long
