So these past two weeks have been a mess with the Euro and the US dollar. I've decided to stray away until I see stability and stronger signals. I decided to stick with different pairs for the moment.
Today and for the rest of the week, I'll be considering a position in CADCHF and here's why:
Weekly
In the weekly chart I'm seeing a range after a plummet within the second week of 2015. This is a 1138.8 pip range that has tested the resistance twice and the bottom once; it also shows convergence in the RSI. Obviously we've missed the sell signal in the beginning of this year, but it's quite possible that there's a reversal gearing up for next week. Last week we were given a quasi-hammer (yellow arrow), indicating a relatively small price indifference. Going back to the RSI we can see oversold levels being re-tested. (I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with another hammer or doji at the end of this trading week.) The MACD confirms a small exhaustion to the downside, but does not imply that it will create a bullish crossover (for that we need confirmation).
Orange Channel:
- Comes from CAD 's highest high
- Has been breached since June of 2017
Blue Channel:
- May be new support
If we see hesitation towards the blue or actual contact, we can potentially have a bullish chart heading towards the 61% and possibly the 78.6% retracements. If we see a break through the support of the blue channel or an indication of the RSI breaking support, we can then expect a continuation of the downtrend starting January 2018.
Daily
In the most recent days we've experienced a solid downtrend that hasn't exhibited any support since it's most recent peak in January. There was a three day hesitation at the 50% retracement under the 200 MA. What concerns me is that the RSI and the MACD are showing convergence along with a bullish crossover. It would be safe to assume any consolidation might happen. By this time tomorrow I will be looking for a candle closing more than 2/3 's of Feb. 27 candle. If price happens to fall below then we can expect a retest of both support lines.
4 Hour
The 4 hour chart does confirm convergence and a falling wedge where the height is represented as the green dotted line. It reaches the 50% retracement last touched on Valentine's Day. So, let's see if our next few candles: stay at a minor support (*small* baby blue line), complete the wedge, or hit the major support line.
These are 'if'-'then' scenarios for CADCHF and I'm hoping to see a bullish turnout for this currency within the remainder of this week and all of next week. If confirmation isn't supported then I'll head the other way.
Today and for the rest of the week, I'll be considering a position in CADCHF and here's why:
Weekly
In the weekly chart I'm seeing a range after a plummet within the second week of 2015. This is a 1138.8 pip range that has tested the resistance twice and the bottom once; it also shows convergence in the RSI. Obviously we've missed the sell signal in the beginning of this year, but it's quite possible that there's a reversal gearing up for next week. Last week we were given a quasi-hammer (yellow arrow), indicating a relatively small price indifference. Going back to the RSI we can see oversold levels being re-tested. (I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with another hammer or doji at the end of this trading week.) The MACD confirms a small exhaustion to the downside, but does not imply that it will create a bullish crossover (for that we need confirmation).
Orange Channel:
- Comes from CAD 's highest high
- Has been breached since June of 2017
Blue Channel:
- May be new support
If we see hesitation towards the blue or actual contact, we can potentially have a bullish chart heading towards the 61% and possibly the 78.6% retracements. If we see a break through the support of the blue channel or an indication of the RSI breaking support, we can then expect a continuation of the downtrend starting January 2018.
Daily
In the most recent days we've experienced a solid downtrend that hasn't exhibited any support since it's most recent peak in January. There was a three day hesitation at the 50% retracement under the 200 MA. What concerns me is that the RSI and the MACD are showing convergence along with a bullish crossover. It would be safe to assume any consolidation might happen. By this time tomorrow I will be looking for a candle closing more than 2/3 's of Feb. 27 candle. If price happens to fall below then we can expect a retest of both support lines.
4 Hour
The 4 hour chart does confirm convergence and a falling wedge where the height is represented as the green dotted line. It reaches the 50% retracement last touched on Valentine's Day. So, let's see if our next few candles: stay at a minor support (*small* baby blue line), complete the wedge, or hit the major support line.
These are 'if'-'then' scenarios for CADCHF and I'm hoping to see a bullish turnout for this currency within the remainder of this week and all of next week. If confirmation isn't supported then I'll head the other way.
