DanV
Long

CADJPY - POTENTIAL LONG ENTRY FOR RETRACEMENT (Updated)

FX_IDC:CADJPY   Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
Our previous attempt to go long did not have follow through hence essentially a scratch trade.

However is worth looking at again, hence - below is the updated details from the previous chart.


In my view most YEN pairs have completed the bullish cycle from moving of the 2011 low. Hence many have formed a top or are in process of doing so.

CAD has been on weaker spectrum of major currency group and this is evident from CADJPY             . Please see below a monthly chart for big picture view - in which you will note that it has topped at upper end of the potential rising trend channel and has almost completed abc zigzag lower of this high.

However, this could not be the end of the correction of the move of the 2011 low and even 2009 low, and on Monthly it looks like it has just started.

Nevertheless as noted above the initial zigzag move of the high appear to be nearly complete and could form intermediate low in the region of 91.50 -90.50 area.

Summary based on H4 time frame:

1. Has retraced to previous structure low and 88.6% of the move from March 2014 to Oct to major high which confluence with other fib ratio.
2. Wave counts suggest the of the abc zigzag wave C appears near complete with internal 5 waves requirement for wave C and the wave 5 of C also has minor 5 wave counts potentially almost complete with last minor leg to above 90.50 - 91.5 zone.
3.Potential RSI divergence forming suggesting that the current decline could come to end soon.
4. Other YEN pairs are in similar bottom process or might have just done so (see comparison chart)
5. The anticipated move retracement to the upside could be back to 97-98 offering decent opportunity. If you are able to monitor the price action then better entry could be found with much less stop loss.
6. This retracement will offer more clues on likely longer term move. On to watch.

As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement. Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, comments and sharing with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
http://www.danv-charting.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w/feed
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG
However note that this is a counter trend trade as trend on lager time frame appear to have reversed from Up to downside. Here is the chart to show what I mean.
snapshot
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Other YEN pairs comparison chart
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