Carnival, and the cruise market in general, has taken a heck of a beating since Covid. Rightfully so given their business model is dependent on cramming people into a close quarter vessel along with carrying pretty heavy amounts of debt.
It's been in a down trend losing weekly (and monthly) levels in a fairly consistent manner. However, the past 4 months or so has shown a consolidation on the weekly with a perceived bottom. What is not shown on this chart is looking back at the 95/96 year monthly / weekly pattern resembles what is currently being seen.
Both the weekly and 2d time frames show a low and a higher low with the highs slamming into the level at about $11 and being rejected which is forming an ascending triangle which is typically bullish. There are 2 things i'm watching
1) I want to see it pull back to the $9-ish area and see buyers come in (wick to the downside) after closure. This would show that the buyers are ready to break the cycle and hopefully push the price through the $11 block. If you are a risk taker, entering in that $9 pullback, if we get it, is the marker. This is risky though since this triangle is forming on a downtrend. The market could very well fall over after exhausting the buyers. (RR 2:1)
2) A close above the $11 level with the entry on the retest of that $11 area is the safer play but with less potential profit. (RR 3:1 or more)
Either trade puts the first target around $14 (especially entering at $9) with the second target at $17.50.
FWIW - I typically do not play long triangles on downtrends. However, managing exposure appropriately, this could be a pretty good trade on a short turnaround time for the stock market.
It's been in a down trend losing weekly (and monthly) levels in a fairly consistent manner. However, the past 4 months or so has shown a consolidation on the weekly with a perceived bottom. What is not shown on this chart is looking back at the 95/96 year monthly / weekly pattern resembles what is currently being seen.
Both the weekly and 2d time frames show a low and a higher low with the highs slamming into the level at about $11 and being rejected which is forming an ascending triangle which is typically bullish. There are 2 things i'm watching
1) I want to see it pull back to the $9-ish area and see buyers come in (wick to the downside) after closure. This would show that the buyers are ready to break the cycle and hopefully push the price through the $11 block. If you are a risk taker, entering in that $9 pullback, if we get it, is the marker. This is risky though since this triangle is forming on a downtrend. The market could very well fall over after exhausting the buyers. (RR 2:1)
2) A close above the $11 level with the entry on the retest of that $11 area is the safer play but with less potential profit. (RR 3:1 or more)
Either trade puts the first target around $14 (especially entering at $9) with the second target at $17.50.
FWIW - I typically do not play long triangles on downtrends. However, managing exposure appropriately, this could be a pretty good trade on a short turnaround time for the stock market.