UnknownUnicorn6361804

$CCL Swing Trade Analysis

Long
NYSE:CCL   Carnival Corporation
In this post, I will be going in detail with regards to my view of $CCL from a technical perspective.

As of the time that I am writing this post, $CCL closed at $17.69 with a pre-market trading value of $17.75. Currently, I am bullish long-term on $CCL unless there are new developments that impact the fundamentals of the cruise industry negatively. I also have multiple entries on $CCL in which I averaged up to an average cost price of $16.02.

Technical Analysis
I believed that I have broken down the technical aspect of $CCL's chart quite clearly in the candlestick chart above, but just to add on a few things:

1. With regards to my price target, if an Ascending Triangle forms, I will take profit when $CCL breaks out towards the upside into the downtrend trading channel which I have drawn in the charts. From there, I may or may not re-enter a position. This will depend on how $CCL reacts to the channel.

2. With regards to my price target, if a Rising Wedge form, I will take profit when $CCL breaks out from the Rising Wedge towards the downside. However, because the downtrend that came before the Rising Wedge is a downtrend that was driven by COVID-19, a black swan event, it is likely that if market sentiments are bullish enough due to the wide availability of COVID-19 vaccines, positive news regarding the cruise industry, etc., prices could still break out towards the upside. As such, these require further monitoring.

3. However, if neither an Ascending Triangle nor a Rising Wedge form, where the market remains uncertain, I will likely hold my position while averaging up/down accordingly, PROVIDED that there are no fundamental changes towards the company and the industry itself.

Disclaimer
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor.
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Trade closed manually:
With the announcement that $CCL has incurred a near $3 billion loss in Q3, and a sale of $1 billion in stock to bolster its cash reserves (which will result in a dilution of shareholders), $CCL prices have fallen back to our entry level @ 16.02 ($CCL closed at 16.03 post-market). This strengthens the bearish market sentiment towards $CCL and the cruise industry. As such, I believe that this announcement will push $CCL towards the dynamic support level of the Ascending Triangle / Rising Wedge at around $14.68 to $15.10 price level. As such, I will be exiting this position temporarily and re-enter once this news has been priced in (which i expect it to settle at around $14.68 to $15.10.
Disclaimer

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