By looking at the and and combining them with cyclical up and down movements of the price, we might start to imagine the price falling back to about $100 a barrel. In order for this to happen, we would need to see a slight improvement in the arena of Libya and Ukraine. Perhaps the market is building this oil tension into the price, and it could get a lot worse, but we saw a severe decline in oil which really lifted the price. This decline may be due to seasonal higher demand and global economies generally recovering. In any case a sell stop at 103.80 might be an idea.