CL - At the Center but....

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
I see 5 major possiblities:

1. Price turns at this (red) centerline where it is now, and go's for a test/retest to the upper CL             (blue)
2. Price stops a the mesured move line, the one in the green zone
3. The lower (grenn) A/R line holds for a massive move to the upside. If this holds, we would have a huge hagopian which means, price is going further back then from where it came.
4. Price finds support at the L-MLH of the small black/red fork, going north again for a retest at least to the red CL            
5. Flush again - down to the blue L-MLH. If so, there is also a high chance that crude could overshoot it and go even further to the south, where heat will really hurt some investors "you know what".

How to play this market?

Using options the right way is allways a very good idea...

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I enjoy silence these days ;)
Hi, Emilio, nice and clean, as always, :)
What would be your thoughts about this longterm fork?

forker look4edge
Hi Dusan.

I would say it's a darn good Fork :)
Really, like this big boy very much!

We allways have to think about, WHAT we mesure with these Forks.
What are we try to achieve with our tools?

Here you have a super nice LT Chart and this have to trade the LT view/context!
Never analyze a LT Chart and manage it in the short term. Why? Becaue it's not the same
perspective, the same context.

What one could do is:
- analyze it exactly how you did...this weekly is fine, even if you have way too much data on it. But it's OK for a LT view - not good for priceaction.
- then zoom in half way and start with a rough priceaction analysis: Pendulum Swings, Swings, Pivots, S&R, Trends (LT, ST), other screamingly observations.
- zoom in to 1-3 months and do a surgical priceaction analysis

...but allways and allways, stay in the same timeframe.

Happy Day Dusan.
+1 Reply
Thanks a lot, Emilio, always appreciate your experienced insights :) Very good point about timeframe.
Recently got feeling that crude oil has to be traded on weekly tf and above... see nice doji cluster engulfed by ema13/34, that was reason for assesing weekly price action.... and interaction with fork was compelling too.
IvanLabrie look4edge
I agree, weekly tf is in control on a time at mode basis here. You can play swings but bigger moves will come from weekly.
Great insights mate, as usual.
forker IvanLabrie
Thank you Ivan

The great thing beeing in a group like yours is, that when people are
open, listen and give insights, we all can share knowlege and learn from each other.

Your group is exemplary in the way, that people are nice, friendly and open.
No "religion" thing about techniqes, indicators or such - just sharing the same interest, let
everybody do what he does and have fun.

As a wise person lately said to me: "Sharing is caring"

So, keep up your great work Ivan! ;-)
+2 Reply
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