Oil has penetrated the monthly . Most breakouts are not reversals and become with-trend entries. However, this in not a trend - it's a trading range. This is merely a leg in a TR , which is often bought near the lows. Price often gets vacuumed to the highs and lows of trading ranges, fooling many into believing it may breakout. However, most TR breakouts fail and reverse (in this case, up).
This is a sell climax, and two legs sideways to up are reliable. The first target is the (20 bar). The next is a of the leg at around $70.