zhipengcfel

Elliott wave analysis on usoil (2016-07-23)

NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
8 months ago
Correction structure of usoil             is quite clear now. The wave C-4 is a triangle structure and was broken in Friday. The price is in wave C-5 currently. The target of C-5 is at around 42.2 based on the triangle broken and 41.4 if wave C-5 equals C-1. The correction might finish next week.

Trading suggestion:
The price rebounded from bottom of the channel. Watch for the resistance at 44.5~44.7 which has a short trading opportunity if price is rejected back with SL at 45.1
TP1: 42.2
TP2: 41.4

Or you can wait for the complete of correction to go long.

Good luck for everyone!
8 months ago
Trade active: Opened short at 44.32 with SL at 45.1.
8 months ago
Comment: It is a nice progress. We might see the TP1 tomorrow.
8 months ago
Comment: Oil is in a 1h decline channel. Pay attention to this decline channel. I will close shorts when it breaks out of this channel, otherwise I will hold patiently.
snapshot
8 months ago
Trade closed: target reached: I closed the short positions to check what will oil go following.
creaker
8 months ago
Hi zhipengcfel !
snapshot
+1 Reply
zhipengcfel creaker
8 months ago
Nice. Thanks for sharing.
+1 Reply
tbuckle PRO
8 months ago
So in this scenario oil could go back up to either of the the red lines before descending? Do you think it is likely or unlikely to touch it either red line before descending and if so which one and why, if I might ask please.
+1 Reply
zhipengcfel tbuckle
8 months ago
It might rebound to 44.5~44.7 which is the bottom line of broken triangle then decline again.
Reply
tbuckle PRO zhipengcfel
8 months ago
Ok, thank you. So no chance of the upper red line at 45.50 to retest the upper downtrend line?
+1 Reply
zhipengcfel tbuckle
8 months ago
It has the probability breaking 44.5~44.7 resistance zone and bounce up. I will just wait how price will react at that resistance zone and then decide.
Reply
smitheric1970 PRO
8 months ago
Great analysis as always Z! Though, I am of slightly different mind here; I think we may have just seen a spring below 44.4 for bears to jump on just to bounce off of the next demand level down. Good trading to you!
Oil Bullish Spring?
+1 Reply
zhipengcfel smitheric1970
8 months ago
Thanks. Very nice chart. It has the probability breaking 44.5~44.7 resistance zone and bounce up. I will wait the how price will react at that resistance zone and then decide.
Reply
creaker
8 months ago
Hi zhipengcfel ! I redraw. July 26-27 meeting of the FOMC - volatility - the rate? It may reach 41.49
snapshot
+1 Reply
zhipengcfel creaker
8 months ago
Thanks. I will watch the price action step by step.
+1 Reply
tbuckle PRO
8 months ago
So you don't think there is a chance for 45.5 area to be tested?
+1 Reply
f1l1per. PRO
8 months ago
great, glad im following you
+1 Reply
zhipengcfel f1l1per.
8 months ago
Thanks. Because it has broken the bottom line of the decline channel, we should see TP1 and TP2 soon.
Reply
OrelMely
8 months ago
nice work
+1 Reply
zhipengcfel OrelMely
8 months ago
Thanks!
Reply
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