I have a bias for taking a sell position due to supply news and geo political events.
1. Increased production with Russia has recently begun producing fuel from the arctic and made its first delivery over the weekend. Libya is now exporting more oil as rebels had been creating supply issues.
2. I believe there is just not enough political will to escalate the Ukrainian crisis. With all economies recovering, any conflict, will plunge the world back into recession, and I think this will be avoided at all costs.
3. The relatively high price of the Euro (and the low petrodollar) is propping up the cost of oil . If we see the ECB start to commence , we should see the the euro fall dramatically while bringing down the oil price with it.
4. Inventories and supply data show that crude oil stocks are healthy.
5. It would seem that the strong resistance will define the direction of the oil price. Many analysts are saying that the price is overbought. Indeed, technical indicators such as the also say the same thing.
Analysts are predicting a drop between 10 - 15% in the coming months.