maccabean
Short

Defined resistance makes shorting crude oil a compelling idea.

NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
We have resistance at 105 and upward sloping support. This converging levels will pinch the price and we should expect a spike up or down in the upcoming day or so.

I have a bias for taking a sell position due to supply news and geo             political events.
1. Increased production with Russia has recently begun producing fuel from the arctic and made its first delivery over the weekend. Libya is now exporting more oil             as rebels had been creating supply issues.
2. I believe there is just not enough political will to escalate the Ukrainian crisis. With all economies recovering, any conflict, will plunge the world back into recession, and I think this will be avoided at all costs.
3. The relatively high price of the Euro             (and the low petrodollar) is propping up the cost of oil             . If we see the ECB start to commence QE             , we should see the the euro             fall dramatically while bringing down the oil             price with it.
4. Inventories and supply data show that crude oil             stocks are healthy.
5. It would seem that the strong resistance will define the direction of the oil             price. Many analysts are saying that the price is overbought. Indeed, technical indicators such as the CCI also say the same thing.

Analysts are predicting a drop between 10 - 15% in the coming months.
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