Renminbi commodities link and the USD

There is a clear shift in economic powers. Further trade wars between US/China are likely to continue, which can put pressure on the PBC to weaken the Renminbi in order to be able to result in attractive export prices. At the same time the commodities link going to provide a downside buffer as the inflation expectations are on the rise worldwide due to central bank stimuli. This double edged sword behavior is similar to the USD acting as a reserve currency: being attractive both due to its liquidity as well as having a strong sovereign economy backing it. 0.14 seems to be an absolute floor for these pairs, 0.1436 - 0.1463 going back to near the 2008 peg provides immediate support zone . The dominant trend is still down from 2014, but hitting support again can provide a boost to the upside breaking the upper boundary of the triangle. A clear break above 0.156 paints a bullish outlook. Current IG client sentiment is 57% long.


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