kertawardhani

One more up swing, bullish scenario on IDX

Long
IDX:COMPOSITE   IDX Composite Index
One more up swing in the current primary cycle. The green scenario is ABCDE or correction pattern, that tends to be shallow but takes longer time to complete. On the other hand the red scenario is ABC or WXY correction pattern, these patterns tend to be sharp but shorter than triangle pattern . Invalidation point of this bullish analysis if IDX < 6134.8818. The fifth wave tends to be slow upward price movement. As we are reaching the end of the primary cycle, it is good to acknowledge that a major correction might be happening in not so distant future. The fifth wave is good for trader in the next couple of months, but I don't think it is good for mid and long term investment because essentially at this point you are buying at the top. We might be seeing stocks that haven't been moving in this primary cycle of IDX suddenly moving up while IDX is facing a local downtrend for example see
Previously I have posted my view on macro analysis, the bearish scenario that we don't want to see. My main bias is we are currently in an impulse primary cycle, but it is good to put the bearish perspective in the back of our minds so we can see the chart in a more objective way. If we are currently in corrective pattern these scenarios might be taking place in the future

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This analysis is not financial advice. Please note that you are responsible for your own investments. This chart only represents my opinion and view about the stock market in general and may be used only for educational purposes.

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