CYS Investments Short to Mid Term Bear

I am not certified or licensed by any individual or institution to give financial advice. I am not a professional stock trader.

Someone messaged me and asked my opinion on CYS . The short answer (no pun intended) is it's a big angry mama bear right now, in my amateur opinion. It's been mostly bearish since 2012 (I don't think I zoomed out enough in the above chart to show that, but you can see for yourself in your own chart if you go to around late September 2012). For awhile it was consolidating/rolling a little (the blue horizontal lines) but in September 2017 it decided it didn't have enough momentum to keep rolling or to bounce up. I'm trying a few new things with this post so let me know what you think. First, the most obvious probably, is I changed the background color; and second is I labeled the patterns I saw. I'm still learning patterns, but to me it appears (as labeled if you can see them) to be a Head and Shoulders and what I've been taught as a Kiss Goodbye. Both are very bearish . Next, I have five sets of exponential moving averages displayed. 10 day, 20 day, 50 day, 100 day, and 200 day (red line, white line, blue line, purple line, and ....whatever color that is respectively). CYS is below all of them. You can bring up your own chart and play around with it to try and find an EMA below it (400 day or higher maybe?) but with just the ones I have displayed you can see there is nothing to catch that price from falling anytime soon. Now, you may notice the two red horizontal lines at the bottom of the chart. The higher of the two I drew off a rough mark (not an exact price) from January 2016 where CYS paused briefly before climbing again. The lowest horizontal line at $5.88 is drawn off a near exact price (give or take a penny) also from January 2016. That one, however, is just a lower wick/tail/shadow of a candlestick ; but it is still a price the stock decided for whatever reason to touch and rise up again. I wouldn't expect the Stock to stop anytime before hitting one of those prices; but I've been wrong before (just look at my prior posts :) ) There is a bottom wick from a candle from back in December 2015 sitting around the $7.00 mark so that could be a bounce point or just a resting spot. We won't know until it gets there.

So, do you buy? If you are hoping to invest and accumulate Stock to hold, my answer is no. Maybe consider it once it stops going down (it has a decent dividend history of $.25 a share) but for now I think you would just be throwing your money away. Another thing to consider as a mark against a bull play is we are in a strong Bull Market overall at the moment, and this Stock has decided to go in the complete opposite direction. So, my answer for a bullish play, whether Stock, or Option, or Spread, is no. How about a bearish play? If you have enough money and patience, then the answer is maybe. I looked into buying Puts but the spread was really wide for the bid-ask so I decided to keep an eye on it; maybe paper trade it, but not to invest real money for the moment.

If you have anything you'd like me to take a look at let me know. Hopefully it will be a benefit to you, and more practice for me to hone my skills.
"Great Post" --- "Excellent Post" --- "Thanks"
Hey this looks great If i got in this play at the kiss and i was still in it my next target i would hope for it to go to would be 6.80 i see a little support there but if i was bearish i would want it to go to 5.88 my last target since the stock is obviously consolidating like you mentioned. Great analysis thank you.
AROD01 Dylan384
@Dylan384, $6.81 was the closing price on February 11, 2106 so that could very well be another rest or support spot. Good eye; I missed that one.
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