We had a risky time after the german index DAX has fallen to a low at 11.800 pt and after leaving the diamond pattern.
At 11.730 pt it found the low which marked the end of wave C.
I wasn´t sure if the index had enough momentum to break the strong resistance at 12.600 pt (fib retracement 78.6%). But it had, when attacking it in the second motive wave.
I think this wave hasn´t ended yet; instead it could lead the index to levels around 13.000 pt - this zone has been a swing trend zone - there´s also a gap which hasn´t be closed yet.
But with reaching this zone we also reached the overbought zone (RSI) and some profit-takes would be reasonnable.
If the analysis is right up to this point we should see a correction wave (4) leading to the last support (fib retracement 78.6% at 12.600 pt). But not below this level, because in EW-theory the wave 4 can´t lead to lower points than the peak of wave 1. And if so, this analysis will be false at that point.
But if not, we should enter in wave 5 after having rebounced. Above the swing trend zone at 13.000 pt there are no significant lines or gaps which could mark an end of w5 - so it´ll be possible that the index tests the last ATH at 13569 pt another time.
Actually the indicators are signalling a bullish trend.
This analysis is no trade avice!!!
At 11.730 pt it found the low which marked the end of wave C.
I wasn´t sure if the index had enough momentum to break the strong resistance at 12.600 pt (fib retracement 78.6%). But it had, when attacking it in the second motive wave.
I think this wave hasn´t ended yet; instead it could lead the index to levels around 13.000 pt - this zone has been a swing trend zone - there´s also a gap which hasn´t be closed yet.
But with reaching this zone we also reached the overbought zone (RSI) and some profit-takes would be reasonnable.
If the analysis is right up to this point we should see a correction wave (4) leading to the last support (fib retracement 78.6% at 12.600 pt). But not below this level, because in EW-theory the wave 4 can´t lead to lower points than the peak of wave 1. And if so, this analysis will be false at that point.
But if not, we should enter in wave 5 after having rebounced. Above the swing trend zone at 13.000 pt there are no significant lines or gaps which could mark an end of w5 - so it´ll be possible that the index tests the last ATH at 13569 pt another time.
Actually the indicators are signalling a bullish trend.
This analysis is no trade avice!!!
Comment:
