TRADE IDEA: DBA APRIL 20TH 18/20 LONG CALL VERTICAL
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 38%
Max Profit: $140/contract
Max Loss: $60 contract
Break Even: 18.60
Notes: With the underlying at all-time lows, going for a small directional shot. Going out to April to attempt to take advantage of potential seasonality. Fills look to be pesky, with the bid/ask on this setup at .55/.65 (mid .60) ... . I would also note that the short call isn't taking much off the top in terms of debit paid (bid .10/ask .15), so this may be one of those cases where you might just want to go Plain Jane long call (bid .70/ask .75) and not cap out max profit with the shortie ... .
Probability of Profit: 38%
Max Profit: $140/contract
Max Loss: $60 contract
Break Even: 18.60
Notes: With the underlying at all-time lows, going for a small directional shot. Going out to April to attempt to take advantage of potential seasonality. Fills look to be pesky, with the bid/ask on this setup at .55/.65 (mid .60) ... . I would also note that the short call isn't taking much off the top in terms of debit paid (bid .10/ask .15), so this may be one of those cases where you might just want to go Plain Jane long call (bid .70/ask .75) and not cap out max profit with the shortie ... .
Comment:
No one wanted to fill me at .60 for the 18/20, so went with the 17/19 instead (which appeared to be a little more liquid). Filled for a 1.18/contract db with a coin flip probability of profit at 49%, a max profit of .82/contract and a break even of 18.18.
Trade closed manually:
Covering here for a 1.20 credit, basically scratching it out. (Opened in wrong account). I'll reestablish it next week in the event that I continue to have enthusiasm for the idea ... .