Part 2 of the big bear market for the stock market, DAX

The ones who have followed me on the DAX know i have waited very patiently for the correctional wave to end. Ever since i called the the start of the bear market from around 13.440 (futures price) i knew were going to see an ABC wave that will end with a very big bull trap. Where i pointed out the reversal we saw the market created a very nasty bear trap on worldwide indices but i spotted the trap on exactly the low :). I did not ride out the whole rally, but from that point on i said i would start to build up a big short position starting from 12.800 (probably). We got there and it even extended it slightly. Since this was my plan for almost half a year, i had absolutely no reason to adjust my plan. I have allot of fundamental reasons to back my theory up, even since the January high.

I really expect we are going to see a big bear market the coming year or 2 and i will try to catch several waves, but this position will probably stay with me until i think the end will be near. The age of free money will come to an end, the main reason the US stock markets made the insane rally the past 9 years. The end is near and i am trying to stay ahead of it.


Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)

David


Previous analysis:

The Analysis where i caught the bear trap

The analysis where i called the start of the bear market

Comment:

Price bounced up from this support level, so there is a chance we could go up again to make a lower high, maybe even a higher high. But my guess is, we will stay below the 12.900 for now

Comment:

Supports seems to break, is this happens, than it's quite sure the high is set. Depending on what US will do later tonight.

Comment:

Seems like the US manipulation is finally ending, the Americans have dan this every time, since i can remember. They always extend/delay the drop trying to exhausts the bears. It looked like we get a real confirmation of a top in the US markets, but the last 2 hours they pushed it a bit higher again leaving it in the middle. But as always, Europe doesn't fall for the trap and the difference between DAX and US has increased by more around 5% the past 5 days or so. But we need to see some more selling in the US today, otherwise things can get a bit tricky.

The Dax clearly wants to go down, there is no doubt about that. So unless the US doesn't spoil the fun, we should see some bearish moves the coming weeks. At the moment it's around the green support level again, where it bounced up from a week ago. If the 12.600 breaks, we might see an acceleration down. Ideally it happens today, of course :)

Comment:

US markets are finally giving up it seems, after postponing the drop to extreme levels. Dax is around another support level now, so we might see some support for this week, but i think it will continue to drop next week. I am not taking profit, this is a long term short positon

Comment:

And another months has passed, with the US markets just keep buying, because life is great and the only way is up :) LOL
Dax broke important support at the 12.500 Friday, now it's on it's way to break another it seems, this one is even more important. Chances are increasing again that we will enter the bear market, but it will depend on the US markets, they need to break some supports there, otherwise it could be extended once again.

Comment:

Perfect example again of patience during trading, having a plan and as long the movement fits the plan, stick to it with the right risk management. Broke an important support level of which it seems we broke the neckline of a H&S. Price should not get above that red resistance zone on the right.