DJ30 could be bullish coming months!
In my point of view, this count is the most probable one for now but it isn't garanteed to happen yet. To be sure we would need more price action. But I found it as an interesting choice to share.
TA:
This count starts with making the All Time High as the end of the previous bullish trend with an ending expanding diagonal* as wave (5).
The entire move down from the all time high (5th of January 2022 at 36 952 $) to the lowest point of this year (20th of May 2022 at 30 635 $) looks to be an ABC zigzag**.
This zigzag formed an expanding diagonal as wave A that ended the 24th of Feb at the price of 32 272 $.
It was then followed by a corrective B wave that ended the 21th of April at the price of 35 492 $.
Lastly the C wave was a simple impulse that should have ended now, the 20th of May at the price of 30 635 $.
I think this entire zigzag is the first wave (A) of a bigger move down, an (ABC) flat***. This would mean that we should have wave (B) incoming. If this is true then we know 2 things:
>(B) should have another structure than (A) and the most probable is that it should be a flat itself making a bearish trap to the downside but resuming higher.
>(B) should retrace minimum 90% of (A) and it could even make an all time high before resuming down later this year.
This would put the target price for wave (B) to around 36 500 $.
The other probable count we could have is a double zigzag with a wave (X) instead of (B). If this happen instead, we will soon see signs of it and the retracement won't be as big as in the flat scenario.
* An ending diagonal: is a 5 waves move. It's the only bullish 5 waves sequence (with the leading diagonal ) where the 4th wave of it breaks below the top of the 1st wave. Its' subwaves are always 3 waves sequences.
** Zigzag: A 3 waves move where the first and the third leg are themselves 5 waves impulses separated with the middle leg which is a 3 waves correction.
*** A flat: is a 3 waves move with the second leg ending a bit lower than the start of the first leg. The first and the second legs can be developed into 3 waves sequences (b wave can also be a triangle) whereas the third leg should develope into a 5 waves sequence.
TA:
This count starts with making the All Time High as the end of the previous bullish trend with an ending expanding diagonal* as wave (5).
The entire move down from the all time high (5th of January 2022 at 36 952 $) to the lowest point of this year (20th of May 2022 at 30 635 $) looks to be an ABC zigzag**.
This zigzag formed an expanding diagonal as wave A that ended the 24th of Feb at the price of 32 272 $.
It was then followed by a corrective B wave that ended the 21th of April at the price of 35 492 $.
Lastly the C wave was a simple impulse that should have ended now, the 20th of May at the price of 30 635 $.
I think this entire zigzag is the first wave (A) of a bigger move down, an (ABC) flat***. This would mean that we should have wave (B) incoming. If this is true then we know 2 things:
>(B) should have another structure than (A) and the most probable is that it should be a flat itself making a bearish trap to the downside but resuming higher.
>(B) should retrace minimum 90% of (A) and it could even make an all time high before resuming down later this year.
This would put the target price for wave (B) to around 36 500 $.
The other probable count we could have is a double zigzag with a wave (X) instead of (B). If this happen instead, we will soon see signs of it and the retracement won't be as big as in the flat scenario.
* An ending diagonal: is a 5 waves move. It's the only bullish 5 waves sequence (with the leading diagonal ) where the 4th wave of it breaks below the top of the 1st wave. Its' subwaves are always 3 waves sequences.
** Zigzag: A 3 waves move where the first and the third leg are themselves 5 waves impulses separated with the middle leg which is a 3 waves correction.
*** A flat: is a 3 waves move with the second leg ending a bit lower than the start of the first leg. The first and the second legs can be developed into 3 waves sequences (b wave can also be a triangle) whereas the third leg should develope into a 5 waves sequence.