Dow: Does History Repeat Itself? Is This A False Breakout?
This past week we broke out of the month long trend-line from lower volume but off the backs of more hoopla from USA-China trade talk. Interestingly, even though trade talks were initially cancelled for September, the market didn't actually move to the downside that drastically; moreover, the market moved to the upside a lot more relatively speaking when the talks were back 'in' for October.
I believe what we are seeing now is a false break-out and unlikely to CLOSE 27,000 (and 3000 in the SP) until the FOMO on Sept 18/19. I believe it is likely we move back towards the August trend-line, move a bit higher again after the ECB eases on Thursday, and back down once more in anticipation of the FOMO.
I believe unless Powell cuts 50bps (which is unlikely) we will likely get rejected around the 27,000 (3000 SP) level. If however he cuts 50 and remains dovish, I believe we can short squeeze to new all-time highs and trade within that range for a few weeks before a sharp downtrend.
Wait and see. As I have been saying for a while, the higher we go, the greater the opportunity to sell your longs at the best price. Further, it gives people an opportunity to swing trade for easy profit and add inverse leveraged shorts at the "cheapest" possible price.
- zSplit
I believe what we are seeing now is a false break-out and unlikely to CLOSE 27,000 (and 3000 in the SP) until the FOMO on Sept 18/19. I believe it is likely we move back towards the August trend-line, move a bit higher again after the ECB eases on Thursday, and back down once more in anticipation of the FOMO.
I believe unless Powell cuts 50bps (which is unlikely) we will likely get rejected around the 27,000 (3000 SP) level. If however he cuts 50 and remains dovish, I believe we can short squeeze to new all-time highs and trade within that range for a few weeks before a sharp downtrend.
Wait and see. As I have been saying for a while, the higher we go, the greater the opportunity to sell your longs at the best price. Further, it gives people an opportunity to swing trade for easy profit and add inverse leveraged shorts at the "cheapest" possible price.
- zSplit