Not posted an update for a while so lots to say considering the recent events, hence the busy chart.
The substantial decline met support at MS3 and the lower trend line from the May lows, and has bounced to reclaim MS2. I would now expect and ABC down to complete, with A having already completed and the B wave to take us up to the previously important level of 25800. This also coincides with a 50% retrace of the decline. When several styles of analysis line up chances increase of accuracy. The yearly pivots of Trad R1 and Fib R2 were strongly tested over the previous few weeks and with such a firm rejection, I expect price to travel to the Demark, Trad and Fib Pivot points at 23200 and 23600 over the next few months, or even weeks if the pace continues.
In volatility like this smaller scale pivots are useless, monthly and yearly are needed.
The broadening formation's lower line from from May coincides nicely with the trad/fib pivot at 23200 and these were not tested in the Feb lows so I believe price has a good chance of travelling here. Further post about this formation on a larger timescale to follow.
There will be serious volatility so reduce position size and widen stops to compensate, or sit aside and wait for better conditions. Not losing money is just as important as earning it.
Finally, the Dow lagged the SPX on the way up for several months and is now doing so on the way down. SPX has already tagged the Jun/Jul low which for the Dow is 24100. This adds to the evidence that price will travel down to these levels the near future.
Thanks for reading, any comments welcome.
The substantial decline met support at MS3 and the lower trend line from the May lows, and has bounced to reclaim MS2. I would now expect and ABC down to complete, with A having already completed and the B wave to take us up to the previously important level of 25800. This also coincides with a 50% retrace of the decline. When several styles of analysis line up chances increase of accuracy. The yearly pivots of Trad R1 and Fib R2 were strongly tested over the previous few weeks and with such a firm rejection, I expect price to travel to the Demark, Trad and Fib Pivot points at 23200 and 23600 over the next few months, or even weeks if the pace continues.
In volatility like this smaller scale pivots are useless, monthly and yearly are needed.
The broadening formation's lower line from from May coincides nicely with the trad/fib pivot at 23200 and these were not tested in the Feb lows so I believe price has a good chance of travelling here. Further post about this formation on a larger timescale to follow.
There will be serious volatility so reduce position size and widen stops to compensate, or sit aside and wait for better conditions. Not losing money is just as important as earning it.
Finally, the Dow lagged the SPX on the way up for several months and is now doing so on the way down. SPX has already tagged the Jun/Jul low which for the Dow is 24100. This adds to the evidence that price will travel down to these levels the near future.
Thanks for reading, any comments welcome.
