The end is near, which is bad for passive "investors" (I prefer calling them parasites), but great news for traders!
I will make this as easy as possible to read by listing bulletpoints.
Here are reasons for the big collapse:
- US President Joe Biden’s new budget includes a new minimum tax on wealthy individuals’ unrealized capital gains, a quadrupled tax on stock buybacks and higher Medicare taxes on people making over $400,000. The only reason stocks have been going up since 2008 is because of buybacks.
- Inflation is very bad, worse than share crashing. It always is, but at the moment it is much more pronounced, as a stock market crash would make frail old people with big bellies very mad, but more inflation would make people 18 to 50 very mad. The government must know this, and for their own safety they might have to let the ponzi crash, or even pin the bubble themselves (as with the tax on share buybacks).
- Banks are having a crisis and central banks have to bail them out 1 by 1.
- If a gold short squeeze happen, it is possible that western banks will all implode. Gold would go up a lot (it's gold, not Bitcoin, it won't go up 75000%).
- We are seing the weakest companies struggles/fail: Businesses doing more politics than business, companies heavily invested in crypto, non-essentials...
- The regular folks, that have been sleeping like babies for the past 25 years - as governments took more and more debt to buy time - are waking up, now that they can directly see prices go up, and getting angry at the consequences of their own actions. They are growing more and more violent and blaming the government, for, as I said, the consequences of their own actions (and inactions). They were laughing at me and calling me a permabear 5 years ago. Will feel great filling my pockets as their lives get worse and worse.
- There are plenty of parallels with the soviet union whose GDP fell nearly 45% over 5 years. If you look for them you will find them. It can get political.
- Printing money and bailing out everyone is what they did in Greece, and how did that work out? Plus if the FED or US Government just buys everything (with regular people money) as rich folks bail out, they are de facto turning into a socialist state, with a broke middle class, a dead (at that point they'll freeze or starve to death) lower class, and rich people that probably would just end up fleeing. Of course it is hard to imagine it getting to that extreme point, which is why logically they will at some point stop bailing out everyone.
- Bankers tried to save the market in 1929 and it failed, their greed prevented them from being willing to take one for the team, and the market was too big.
- Millions of young men in the USA are dropping out of the system, as most of them can never dream of buying a house, as 60% of them are not dating (for those wonder who the young women are dating if it is not young men: migrants or older wealthier men).
- Social Networks are being used by the super rich to show the young men with a lot of free time how easy they have it: what could possibly go wrong? In every depression the poor get resentful of the rich and it turns violent. Now it will get so much worse. Expect Madonna to receive free amateur facial surgery.
- China manufacturing value added is equal to that of US + EU (5 trillion versus 2.5 each). Western domination is over.
- War with China might start and neither that neither war with Russia might end up in the west favor.
Here are reasons for the market to keep going up:
- Buybacks could continue
- Boomers hold most of the power and capital and they want to maintain the status quo until they die
- Boomers hold the currency printing machine and have no shame in printing as much as is needed regardless of how angry the other generations get
- Feel free to check other people's ideas for more, I can't see that many reasons for the market to go up. let me know if you have 1.
Here is what will matter:
- What people really need and want most are the basic requirements, eating and heating. Rest is secondary. Housing can go down, but in my opinion retail, as in food distribution, is one thing that can hardly go down. Maybe down 40% when everything else is down 90.
Since the start of the war I have not made money, I got impatiented and "yolo'd" and "went long term", all I did was lose money.
This market is not interesting. People doing the things that are not recommended, "low risk reward", and "countertrend" might be making money.
Easy money soon for us all, fingers crossed. Don't need to be a magical all knowing wizard with a crystal ball, just be patient for big events in the market. Soon, soon. And there will be plenty of money to be made for us all, if we could cooperate it would be even better, there are way more victims bagholding than there are of us predators waiting for the time to strike.
I'll take a guess (just for fun) and say the S&P 500 will drop nearly 80%, all the way down to 1000 points.
I will make this as easy as possible to read by listing bulletpoints.
Here are reasons for the big collapse:
- US President Joe Biden’s new budget includes a new minimum tax on wealthy individuals’ unrealized capital gains, a quadrupled tax on stock buybacks and higher Medicare taxes on people making over $400,000. The only reason stocks have been going up since 2008 is because of buybacks.
- Inflation is very bad, worse than share crashing. It always is, but at the moment it is much more pronounced, as a stock market crash would make frail old people with big bellies very mad, but more inflation would make people 18 to 50 very mad. The government must know this, and for their own safety they might have to let the ponzi crash, or even pin the bubble themselves (as with the tax on share buybacks).
- Banks are having a crisis and central banks have to bail them out 1 by 1.
- If a gold short squeeze happen, it is possible that western banks will all implode. Gold would go up a lot (it's gold, not Bitcoin, it won't go up 75000%).
- We are seing the weakest companies struggles/fail: Businesses doing more politics than business, companies heavily invested in crypto, non-essentials...
- The regular folks, that have been sleeping like babies for the past 25 years - as governments took more and more debt to buy time - are waking up, now that they can directly see prices go up, and getting angry at the consequences of their own actions. They are growing more and more violent and blaming the government, for, as I said, the consequences of their own actions (and inactions). They were laughing at me and calling me a permabear 5 years ago. Will feel great filling my pockets as their lives get worse and worse.
- There are plenty of parallels with the soviet union whose GDP fell nearly 45% over 5 years. If you look for them you will find them. It can get political.
- Printing money and bailing out everyone is what they did in Greece, and how did that work out? Plus if the FED or US Government just buys everything (with regular people money) as rich folks bail out, they are de facto turning into a socialist state, with a broke middle class, a dead (at that point they'll freeze or starve to death) lower class, and rich people that probably would just end up fleeing. Of course it is hard to imagine it getting to that extreme point, which is why logically they will at some point stop bailing out everyone.
- Bankers tried to save the market in 1929 and it failed, their greed prevented them from being willing to take one for the team, and the market was too big.
- Millions of young men in the USA are dropping out of the system, as most of them can never dream of buying a house, as 60% of them are not dating (for those wonder who the young women are dating if it is not young men: migrants or older wealthier men).
- Social Networks are being used by the super rich to show the young men with a lot of free time how easy they have it: what could possibly go wrong? In every depression the poor get resentful of the rich and it turns violent. Now it will get so much worse. Expect Madonna to receive free amateur facial surgery.
- China manufacturing value added is equal to that of US + EU (5 trillion versus 2.5 each). Western domination is over.
- War with China might start and neither that neither war with Russia might end up in the west favor.
Here are reasons for the market to keep going up:
- Buybacks could continue
- Boomers hold most of the power and capital and they want to maintain the status quo until they die
- Boomers hold the currency printing machine and have no shame in printing as much as is needed regardless of how angry the other generations get
- Feel free to check other people's ideas for more, I can't see that many reasons for the market to go up. let me know if you have 1.
Here is what will matter:
- What people really need and want most are the basic requirements, eating and heating. Rest is secondary. Housing can go down, but in my opinion retail, as in food distribution, is one thing that can hardly go down. Maybe down 40% when everything else is down 90.
Since the start of the war I have not made money, I got impatiented and "yolo'd" and "went long term", all I did was lose money.
This market is not interesting. People doing the things that are not recommended, "low risk reward", and "countertrend" might be making money.
Easy money soon for us all, fingers crossed. Don't need to be a magical all knowing wizard with a crystal ball, just be patient for big events in the market. Soon, soon. And there will be plenty of money to be made for us all, if we could cooperate it would be even better, there are way more victims bagholding than there are of us predators waiting for the time to strike.
I'll take a guess (just for fun) and say the S&P 500 will drop nearly 80%, all the way down to 1000 points.