A 12 Year Cycle for Volatility Cycle is identified here. I extrapolated the VIX cycle over the past 100+ years for DJI and as you can see the 12 year cycle has been working for the past 100+ years. Volatility peaks in the first half of the cycle as volatility rises from it's trough. This has worked for many of the previous crashes including 1929, 1987, 2008. Note the 2000-2003 market decline didn't have a significant VIX spike because it occurred during the second half of the volatility cycle. The peak for that volatility cycle occured in 1998.
Going forward, what this means is that we had a significant VIX spike in March and this may be the VIX peak for the cycle. It is too early to say at this time as the cycle is still in the first half and premature. If the VIX did peak already, it doesn't mean the market can't have a significant decline. It can and will be similar to 2000-2003.
Going forward, what this means is that we had a significant VIX spike in March and this may be the VIX peak for the cycle. It is too early to say at this time as the cycle is still in the first half and premature. If the VIX did peak already, it doesn't mean the market can't have a significant decline. It can and will be similar to 2000-2003.
