The great depression VS today's market structure!
- trying to find synergies between both timeline's
The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1926-1933: An Applied Time Series Investigation
I found this interesting how it aligns with today's market sentiment..
chgate.net/publication/314247517_The_Stock_Market_Boom_and_Crash_of_1926-1933_An_Applied_Time_Series_Investigation]https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314247517_The_Stock_Market_Boom_and_Crash_of_1926-1933_An_Applied_Time_Series_Investigation
Companys are in the mist of adopting innovative technology, from blockchain technology to artificial intelligence.
Hyper inflation begun in 1924 lasting until 1929 until eventually the DJI collapsed 89%.
The catalyst to inflation - Hyper inflation. over expanding the currency supply.
here's an article of the Dawes plan which would of contributed to hyper inflation.
www.bbc.co.uk/bitesi.../zcfxcwx/revision/2.
Todays market structure and sentiment.. DJI
This show's the DJI coming to a similar % rally we saw during the great depression...
Also signalling a top target for maximum Fibonacci levels, combined with bull flag TP target price..
Pretty scary chart to say the least!!..
But highlighting potential scenario's..
Still a good chance we see a shorter correction before continuing into a hyper inflation period.
*Fiat currency - has lost a significant amount of value, from - covid stimulus/aid too Russia/Ukraine now Israel/Hamas. Central banks over expanding the currency supply.
The chart's and timeline's match... but The great depression happened in much shorter succession.
history often rhymes!
- my thesis the great depression is delayed - hyper inflation is yet to come... with that risk on asset's will rise!
WHY?
The debt ceiling was raised to 35 Trillion dollars until 2025 which insinuates reserve liquidity to recover failing market's - banks and possible real estate with downward pressure on individual companies and business's.
countries can't withstand high interest rate's due their current Debt .. currently economy's are expected to retract.
Sentiment
The US changed the definition of a recession so many are still un- aware that were currently in a recession.
talks of just missing one! - which I find pretty amusing!
Central banks are back tracking on high interest rates for longer, M2 money supply is contracting to the lowest level since 1960.
Now expected 6 rate cuts during 2024!
were currently in a speculation rally based off liquidity returning and the fast adoption of technology which is currently propping up the DJI.
Likely we see a 30-50% correction for the DJI, But for the reason's above we could see a shorter correction. which would align with the great depression!
Let me know your thought's in the comments below.
- trying to find synergies between both timeline's
The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1926-1933: An Applied Time Series Investigation
I found this interesting how it aligns with today's market sentiment..
chgate.net/publication/314247517_The_Stock_Market_Boom_and_Crash_of_1926-1933_An_Applied_Time_Series_Investigation]https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314247517_The_Stock_Market_Boom_and_Crash_of_1926-1933_An_Applied_Time_Series_Investigation
Companys are in the mist of adopting innovative technology, from blockchain technology to artificial intelligence.
Hyper inflation begun in 1924 lasting until 1929 until eventually the DJI collapsed 89%.
The catalyst to inflation - Hyper inflation. over expanding the currency supply.
here's an article of the Dawes plan which would of contributed to hyper inflation.
www.bbc.co.uk/bitesi.../zcfxcwx/revision/2.
Todays market structure and sentiment.. DJI
Also signalling a top target for maximum Fibonacci levels, combined with bull flag TP target price..
Pretty scary chart to say the least!!..
But highlighting potential scenario's..
Still a good chance we see a shorter correction before continuing into a hyper inflation period.
*Fiat currency - has lost a significant amount of value, from - covid stimulus/aid too Russia/Ukraine now Israel/Hamas. Central banks over expanding the currency supply.
The chart's and timeline's match... but The great depression happened in much shorter succession.
history often rhymes!
- my thesis the great depression is delayed - hyper inflation is yet to come... with that risk on asset's will rise!
WHY?
The debt ceiling was raised to 35 Trillion dollars until 2025 which insinuates reserve liquidity to recover failing market's - banks and possible real estate with downward pressure on individual companies and business's.
countries can't withstand high interest rate's due their current Debt .. currently economy's are expected to retract.
Sentiment
The US changed the definition of a recession so many are still un- aware that were currently in a recession.
talks of just missing one! - which I find pretty amusing!
Central banks are back tracking on high interest rates for longer, M2 money supply is contracting to the lowest level since 1960.
Now expected 6 rate cuts during 2024!
were currently in a speculation rally based off liquidity returning and the fast adoption of technology which is currently propping up the DJI.
Likely we see a 30-50% correction for the DJI, But for the reason's above we could see a shorter correction. which would align with the great depression!
Let me know your thought's in the comments below.