IvanLabrie

DX1!: Dollar index at an inflection point

ICEUSA:DX1!   U.S. Dollar Index
8 months ago
The dollar index             futures have been tracing a strong monthly uptrend and currently grinded to a halt, with considerably strong declines in most dollar pairs.
Right now, it's range bound, stuck between 10 month levels that will soon become 11 months after March's close.

For price to move, it needs to clear this zone, either up or down.
Once below, it can accelerate more freely towards either the low volume support area below or a resumption of the monthly rally.

Fundamentally speaking, the rising dollar has been hurting earnings and the normalization of interest rates didn't help, creating a cascade in equity prices. Clearly, central banks world wide, are interested in keeping rates low or even negative for the most part, further inflating their asset bubbles, and keeping the fiat ecosystem healthy.
The forecast is for sideways price action in the dollar index             for an extended period of time.
This makes the gold             and silver             (and Bitcoin!) long prospects very attractive, since this can lead to a lose of faith in fiat money as the bubbles become unsustainable, even with the most sringent of monetary policies.

To resume the long term uptrend, we would have to break the resistance above 98, but it would be interesting to go long against the 92.6-89.59 zone as well. I wouldn't bother with trend trading in this scale, and would rather trade swings in the daily.

Ivan Labrie.
8 months ago
Comment: (zoom out to see the text in the black balloon, for some reason the scale makes it invisible when I post)
8 months ago
Comment: Broke below support, monitoring progress.
8 months ago
Comment: We'll certainly test low volume support.
Notice how this chart looks a lot like S&P500...same implications.
8 months ago
Comment: On its way down.
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