This is a guess informed by the following premises:
- BTC historically takes around a year to bottom out, and it topped out in November of last year.
- September is historically worst month for BTC .
- October and November are historically very green months.
- There's an election in November, so some efforts will probably be made to make the markets look good, at least temporarily.
- Apparent (albeit limited) inverse correlation between BTC and DXY .
I'm looking at this as a crypto trader, and this is the scenario I'm keeping an eye out on:
1. DXY straddles the blue line over the next few weeks and gives crypto time to breathe and rally ( BTC to 30k, SPX to 4200).
2. DXY goes hyperbolic in late August/early September and crashes crypto to new lows.
3. DXY pops off then drops below the blue parabolic line, makes a lower high, fails to get back in the parabolic line, then begins to crash in October.
4. That effectively marks crypto bottom - BTC at around 10-14k.
5. In 2023 BTC and the rest of the crypto market move sideways until 2024, boring everyone out of the market.
- BTC historically takes around a year to bottom out, and it topped out in November of last year.
- September is historically worst month for BTC .
- October and November are historically very green months.
- There's an election in November, so some efforts will probably be made to make the markets look good, at least temporarily.
- Apparent (albeit limited) inverse correlation between BTC and DXY .
I'm looking at this as a crypto trader, and this is the scenario I'm keeping an eye out on:
1. DXY straddles the blue line over the next few weeks and gives crypto time to breathe and rally ( BTC to 30k, SPX to 4200).
2. DXY goes hyperbolic in late August/early September and crashes crypto to new lows.
3. DXY pops off then drops below the blue parabolic line, makes a lower high, fails to get back in the parabolic line, then begins to crash in October.
4. That effectively marks crypto bottom - BTC at around 10-14k.
5. In 2023 BTC and the rest of the crypto market move sideways until 2024, boring everyone out of the market.
