Ludwig_Von_Mises

Technical Breakdown in DXY. STRONG & GROWING Fundamental Drivers

Long
INDEX:DXY   US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
Check out my DXY chart from November. DXY fell from 99, just under 100, all the way down to 95/94 in ~2 weeks. High correlation with the Fed cutting rates and yields falling. With the twin deficits set to GROW not shrink and the Fed's balance sheet set to GROW not shrink, and with interest rates set to FALL not rise, the path for the US dollar is looking more and more clear.

Weakening dollar will mean foreign markets outperform US markets and rising commodity prices.
Markets can still crash but they will crash in terms of gold. Look at the DJI to Gold ratio for reference.

Quantitative easing from 2011-2015 did not work. For that reason I think we can easily take out 80 and 70 in the DXY.
For the DXY to go on another bull market cycle there would have to be decent growth expectations in the US behind that. That's not happening. We are loaded up on massive amounts of debt. Growth rates are going lower not higher. Central bank balance sheet expansion (Counterfeiting/money printing) is going higher.
Comment:
My view has changed, I see DXY heading to 105 and higher, and SPX heading to 1500 and lower.

Following this major market bottom and major market top, we will see a massive devaluation of the dollar and spiking gold prices.
Comment:
Boy was I wrong lol. I see DXY headed a lot higher
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.