Heavily bullish on SOFI going into earnings next week. Soft landing is all but guaranteed at this point and talks of a rate cut, maybe even 2, have been ramping up possibly up to 50 basis points. Bank stocks **should** benefit from this and hope to at least double my money on this options trade. Will be holding shares for foreseeable future and buying more if...
A more dovish fed receiving softer data has brought the USDCAD mostly on par over a longer period of time. The link between the two economies has helped form a very tentative downtrend over the last month. We are now arriving at Key Technical Price Action areas amid a clear downtrend. Swings entries/exits noted, likely to go inline with CB trajectory for the...
Looks like market bottoms just before the Unemployment peak. Market peaks just before fed starts reducing the rates. At the current situation, we have fed fund rates high and also unemployment started to climb. Will be looking at the unemployment going high and markets roll over and fed cuts rates. if FED keeps the same rate for long, something in the economy...
CBOT: Wheat Futures ( CBOT:ZW1! ) On Friday, July 12th, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). (Note: The WASDE report is published monthly and provides annual forecasts for global supply and use of wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds and cotton, as well as the U.S. supply...
UNEMPLOYMENT / FED FUNDS RATE - PLAY BOOK This post I intend to explore with you the cyclic relationship we can observer between: 1) US Unemployment Rate (BLUE), 2) 21D SMA (Orange) based in unemployment data, and 3) Resultant Recessions (Gray Bars) Historically, the general play book / sequence of events suggest once we break the 21 Day SMA (orange line), it...
It’s going to be a busy month for the Chair of the Fed (Jerome Powell), who delivers a speech today and then will testify later this month in front of Congress to provide updates on monetary policy decisions. Will we gain clarity on the timing of potential rate cuts this year, and if they are even being considered? Crypto in June - How BTC responds June saw...
CBOT: Micro 2-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ) Last Thursday night, I watched the first Biden-Trump presidential debate live on TV, along with tens of millions of likely voters of the 2024 US presidential election. Who won the debate? According to the exit poll conducted by 538/Ipsos: • 60.1% of the likely voters being...
This is the past data of NASDAQ and would like to see how the everything code plays out based on Raoul Paul's idea that everything is correlating to the debt refinancing by the fed. remember rates will be cut soon and based on past data September gets the end of the stick so lets see how they cut rates and how the market will behave due to that #fed #nas100 #QQQ
USD/CAD has entered its third straight losing week and faces renewed pressures today after the upside surprise in Canadian inflation. Crucially, Core CPI accelerated 1.6% y/y in May, snapping its five-months declining streak. The Bank of Canada had slashed rates earlier this month, for the first time four years and had hinted at further easing if inflation...
I wanted to share some exciting news from the forex world: the dollar has extended its winning streak into the fifth week! 🎉 A key gauge of the dollar's strength continues to rise, driven by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut. With the yen showing signs of weakness, the USD is shining brightly on the...
- how it works : - Imagine you can create apples, and that you are the only one in the world able to do that. - So if you create 100 apples, you will make them more rare and unique, so maybe you can sell them for 10$ each one. - So now imagine you create 10,000,000,000 apples, you will have more apples than peoples need to eat, so you will have to sell your...
The chart explains itself really but we can see that BTC PA has not been effected Directly but more by the impact on other organisations, Mostly Banks. What will be interesting to see i nt eh coming months, is what happens when the FED curs rates, probably in September 2024. On average, when the FED Pivots, Stocks fall...people tend to forget this. We shall...
The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the federal funds target range at 5.25%-5.5% when officials conclude their two-day meeting on Wednesday. Investors will be scrutinizing the statement to learn when the central bank might eventually reduce its rate and the potential frequency of such cuts this year. Market expectations suggest a possible rate...
As the tides of economic fortune ebb and flow, a spectre of recession looms over the horizon, whispering in the rustling of Treasury yields and the shifting sands of macroeconomic indicators. Recent economic data has painted a complex tableau of financial uncertainty. From declining PMI figures to a palpable deceleration in GDP growth, the economic forecast has...
"The Fed sees no recession until at leat 2027 and a very smooth landing" They are either ignoring blatant economic indicators Or straight out lying to the public, and the media. As this chart shows. When Housing starts go down and unemployment starts spiking a recession almost immediately follows . If I can see that with no economics background, no MBA, or...
Although it's hard to predict what the stock market will do in the future, there is already a clear consensus on what is likely to happen. In this chart, I have plotted most predictions from big investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to other investors like Michael Burry. I have also calculated the average of all the predictions and plotted it on...
A nod to @unbeldi And a updated chart Swapping the Bitcoin price to marketcap over the M1 money As BTC is a Trillion dollar asset again and was invented to be peer to peer cash It's good to compare the ratio vs the dollar. And imagine one day in the future that it may dethrone the King. Since BTC is natively digital and global (M2 is slightly larger number...
The 2Yr yield has paced itself recently. The 10Yr #yield is picking up steam. Both went from a bearish moving average crossover, circles, to a bullish (Data not seen here, more info in profile) 2Yr is almost @ last years bank failure rates. 10Yr has been trading mostly above. Weekly 2Yr looks like it wants to skyrocket, if breaking out of the ascending triangle...