DXYUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% DXY, 70% Cash.
*DXY, 10 Year US Treasury Bonds and VIX are taking a hit as JPYUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD, 30 Year US Treasury Bonds, Cryptos, Equities, Equity Futures and Commodities are all up. This is after speculation that Japan's government had intervened in currency markets by selling USD for JPY in order to protect a key JPYUSD threshold. Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Daly (currently not FOMC member) commented that the Fed should reevaluate how restrictive they need to be and that 75bp increments after November may be unnecessary. This combination is likely responsible for today's shift in market sentiment toward more Risk-On. St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC member) quickly clapped back today and said that the Fed can keep raising rates until they see inflation come down meaningfully because the job market is "extremely strong". Comments like Bullard's leave the possibility of 100bps on November 2nd still on the table. The 7th and penultimate Beige Book of 2022 released on 10/19 highlighted: a tightening job market with wage growth still intact, a slowing housing market, a continued weakening demand for production and an increase in travel/tourism from the post-Covid reopening. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; 20th and Final GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.*
Price is currently trending down at ~$112 after being rejected by the upper trendline of the ascending channel from October 2008 at ~$114 as resistance, this is just below $114.63 major resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at the 50 MA (~$110.50) which is just above $110 minor support, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 51.50 as it approaches a retest of 49 minor support, this would likely coincide with the uptrend line from July 2020 at ~48 as support. Stochastic is currently on the verge of crossing over bearish at 46 after forming a peak at 51 resistance, the next support is at 24. MACD remains bearish and is currently reversing a trough formation as it breaks below 0.65 support and continues to trend down at 0.57; the next support is at 0.24. ADX is currently trending sideways at 19 as Price continues to see rejection at the local high, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely aim to retest the upper trendline of the ascending channel from October 2008 at ~$114 as resistance (and potentially $114.63 resistance). However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$110.50 as support before potentially retesting $110 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $113.32.
*DXY, 10 Year US Treasury Bonds and VIX are taking a hit as JPYUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD, 30 Year US Treasury Bonds, Cryptos, Equities, Equity Futures and Commodities are all up. This is after speculation that Japan's government had intervened in currency markets by selling USD for JPY in order to protect a key JPYUSD threshold. Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Daly (currently not FOMC member) commented that the Fed should reevaluate how restrictive they need to be and that 75bp increments after November may be unnecessary. This combination is likely responsible for today's shift in market sentiment toward more Risk-On. St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC member) quickly clapped back today and said that the Fed can keep raising rates until they see inflation come down meaningfully because the job market is "extremely strong". Comments like Bullard's leave the possibility of 100bps on November 2nd still on the table. The 7th and penultimate Beige Book of 2022 released on 10/19 highlighted: a tightening job market with wage growth still intact, a slowing housing market, a continued weakening demand for production and an increase in travel/tourism from the post-Covid reopening. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; 20th and Final GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.*
Price is currently trending down at ~$112 after being rejected by the upper trendline of the ascending channel from October 2008 at ~$114 as resistance, this is just below $114.63 major resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at the 50 MA (~$110.50) which is just above $110 minor support, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 51.50 as it approaches a retest of 49 minor support, this would likely coincide with the uptrend line from July 2020 at ~48 as support. Stochastic is currently on the verge of crossing over bearish at 46 after forming a peak at 51 resistance, the next support is at 24. MACD remains bearish and is currently reversing a trough formation as it breaks below 0.65 support and continues to trend down at 0.57; the next support is at 0.24. ADX is currently trending sideways at 19 as Price continues to see rejection at the local high, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely aim to retest the upper trendline of the ascending channel from October 2008 at ~$114 as resistance (and potentially $114.63 resistance). However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$110.50 as support before potentially retesting $110 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $113.32.