Spring loaded
ready to melt faces
liq the bears
dollar bulls uniting
Look at that MacD contraction / the divergence building since March on DXY.. heavy stuff. The dollar crises still looms overhead. The recovery is once again decelerating both domestically and globally. Covid cases and deaths are on the rise with Thanksgiving numbers not yet reflecting. Commercial banks continue to tighten lending standards at record pace and in some sectors are already tighter than 07/08. Unemployment still at record highs, and expectations still falling short month over month and week over week. Are you going to bet on a speedy recovery, or are you going to bet on a double dip recession? I still believe what we've seen in risk on markets since March is simply temporary refllation. The "Hope Phase" as Raoul Pal calls it. I also believe the "Insolvency Phase", (which has been the can that's been kicked down the road since 07/08 due to a hopeful, yet ineffective QE) will finally rear it's ugly head sooner than later (No later than March 2021 in my opinion) and begin a deflationary spiral. Until the government can actually force the commercial banks to lend, our world will remain in a deflationary environment and QE / "money printing" will remain ineffective. A bear market / Insolvency Phase would most likely pave the way for this type of structural change within the global and domestic monetary system. Until then.. this is a massive equity, real estate, and credit bubble, and there is not a doubt in my mind about that. How much longer can the bubble go on? Not sure but I don't believe too much longer than spring of 2021. Maybe it pops today, maybe next week, maybe in February. No one knows. But... The charts say to proceed with caution in this current territory.
ready to melt faces
liq the bears
dollar bulls uniting
Look at that MacD contraction / the divergence building since March on DXY.. heavy stuff. The dollar crises still looms overhead. The recovery is once again decelerating both domestically and globally. Covid cases and deaths are on the rise with Thanksgiving numbers not yet reflecting. Commercial banks continue to tighten lending standards at record pace and in some sectors are already tighter than 07/08. Unemployment still at record highs, and expectations still falling short month over month and week over week. Are you going to bet on a speedy recovery, or are you going to bet on a double dip recession? I still believe what we've seen in risk on markets since March is simply temporary refllation. The "Hope Phase" as Raoul Pal calls it. I also believe the "Insolvency Phase", (which has been the can that's been kicked down the road since 07/08 due to a hopeful, yet ineffective QE) will finally rear it's ugly head sooner than later (No later than March 2021 in my opinion) and begin a deflationary spiral. Until the government can actually force the commercial banks to lend, our world will remain in a deflationary environment and QE / "money printing" will remain ineffective. A bear market / Insolvency Phase would most likely pave the way for this type of structural change within the global and domestic monetary system. Until then.. this is a massive equity, real estate, and credit bubble, and there is not a doubt in my mind about that. How much longer can the bubble go on? Not sure but I don't believe too much longer than spring of 2021. Maybe it pops today, maybe next week, maybe in February. No one knows. But... The charts say to proceed with caution in this current territory.