The stock market has been rising in spite of the covid pandemic. Even before that, some well-known names were predicting a huge cruse with Peter Schiff republishing his same old book every year for some time now. Anyway, many of us agree, that there is something wrong with the markets and even more reputable managers predict a crash. It is, therefore, a good idea to look where the money tends to go should that happen.
Forex is a central point of the financial markets. Bonds, stocks, and commodities each is denominated in a currency. Buying the right asset from the right asset class is great. Buying it with the right currency is even greater ☺
One of the winners is clearly an American Dollar. I will leave it in all the following charts. After a long downtrend, the crisis put a halt to that and in 130 days, 860 days worth of losing the value was recovered. Of course, such rapid growth in currency value must have made exports difficult, so I assume there must have been some major intervention and the downtrend resumed after a beautiful double top.
(the chart below dollar is SP500 as another anchor for our analysis)
Then, there are two losers in this chart. It is important to mention two things. First, the charts present futures as the other indexes don't go as far. Second, a weak currency doesn't mean the country handled the crisis poorly. But as far as currencies go, AUD and EUR did perform rather poorly. // I think this is likely to be a repeated behavior. AUD is still a commodity currency and EUR pegs diverse economies to each other. This raises a question about stability as successful currencies require political and economical union too.
Oil currencies such as NOK or CAD seem to also have dropped. I added Oil chart at the bottom. // I do think that this is likely to repeat with NOK, but not necessarily with CAD. Although the CAD is another commodity currency, it is perceived as safer to some degree. At least as far as I know.
(could not find reliable NOK index)
When it comes to currencies generally perceived as safe, Yen performed nicely and has risen more than 25% measuring from the lowest low between 2008 to the nearest significant top. The pair USDJPY was sideways-ish before the years 2007-2008 but is clearly downward-slope as Yen somewhat outperforms US Dollar. The same can't be said about the Swiss Franc which has only woken up after the dollar started to reverse. You can point out several weekly candles when the investors were rushing from the dollar and buying CHF in exchange in these times. // I think a Yen will express similar behavior. I am not sure what to make of CHF which is backed by gold more than other currencies and the gold has already risen quite high.
I will leave it here without further interpretation, but I am looking forward to discussion if there is one, and I will make a few more similar posts in the future if this one becomes any popular.
Forex is a central point of the financial markets. Bonds, stocks, and commodities each is denominated in a currency. Buying the right asset from the right asset class is great. Buying it with the right currency is even greater ☺
One of the winners is clearly an American Dollar. I will leave it in all the following charts. After a long downtrend, the crisis put a halt to that and in 130 days, 860 days worth of losing the value was recovered. Of course, such rapid growth in currency value must have made exports difficult, so I assume there must have been some major intervention and the downtrend resumed after a beautiful double top.
(the chart below dollar is SP500 as another anchor for our analysis)
Then, there are two losers in this chart. It is important to mention two things. First, the charts present futures as the other indexes don't go as far. Second, a weak currency doesn't mean the country handled the crisis poorly. But as far as currencies go, AUD and EUR did perform rather poorly. // I think this is likely to be a repeated behavior. AUD is still a commodity currency and EUR pegs diverse economies to each other. This raises a question about stability as successful currencies require political and economical union too.
Oil currencies such as NOK or CAD seem to also have dropped. I added Oil chart at the bottom. // I do think that this is likely to repeat with NOK, but not necessarily with CAD. Although the CAD is another commodity currency, it is perceived as safer to some degree. At least as far as I know.
(could not find reliable NOK index)
When it comes to currencies generally perceived as safe, Yen performed nicely and has risen more than 25% measuring from the lowest low between 2008 to the nearest significant top. The pair USDJPY was sideways-ish before the years 2007-2008 but is clearly downward-slope as Yen somewhat outperforms US Dollar. The same can't be said about the Swiss Franc which has only woken up after the dollar started to reverse. You can point out several weekly candles when the investors were rushing from the dollar and buying CHF in exchange in these times. // I think a Yen will express similar behavior. I am not sure what to make of CHF which is backed by gold more than other currencies and the gold has already risen quite high.
I will leave it here without further interpretation, but I am looking forward to discussion if there is one, and I will make a few more similar posts in the future if this one becomes any popular.