dchua1969

Inflation, bond purchase, interest rate and impact on market

TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
So, the Fed has once again said they will taper this month ! Unless you have been living in a cave, modern city dwellers will lament that food, transport and almost everything is going up in prices. Of course, those holding on to hard assets like properties are celebrating. On the other hand, just like a ballon, it cannot keep on inflating , to a certain point, it will explode.

And now, some gurus are saying that is going to happen to the global property market. Look no further, China is a great example. I have long said many retail investors in China made their millions through 2 vehicles - stocks and properties. The latter is a key pillar of the Chinese economy and there have been numerous reports after reports saying the market is going to bust but so far it has not.

With the Central government wanting to increase the fertility rate , housing affordability becomes a key issue among the young people. That explains why they are clamping hard on the education/tuition market which had rake in billion of dollars for the companies. Still, many are operating or attempting to hide under the radar to offer these services (remember , habits are hard to change).

The Feds are well aware they have little to no weapons left to manipulate the market. DEFINITELY not increase the interest rate COZ they cannot afford that , haha. And tapering the bond buying program will also not alleviate the inflation rate as well.

The middle income group are feeling the pinch with stagnant wages, low unemployment , constraints of COVID-19 ,etc and the rising costs of living. Is it any wonder why mental health has become a hot topic of late ? It has been there all along but the pandemic has become a catalyst , driving up the stress, depression and suicidal rates for many (sadly the numbers will increase)

Ya, I know I know the market is LONGGGGGGGGGG due for a correction but again I had been wrong many times attempting to outsmart the market. It is wiser to be in the market than to TIME the market (though the latter sometimes drives up my adrenaline and a false sense of superiority, haha).

SPX500 has just broke a new record of 4700 ( i thought it would correct at 4400 but of course i was so damn wrong). Cryptocurrency is now gaining more traction and acceptance as banks and cards companies begin to see its benefits and unable to resist it. Speculators and early adopters and overnight millionaires are laughing at us (me included) for not getting on the bandwagon years ago, lack of foresight and balls, haha. Oh well......guess some guys have all the luck , ya ?

Now, looking at these 2 charts once more, I think if the bond purchase program is indeed reduced later this month, then it will drives up the dollars and EURUSD is heading south once more.

From the business perspective, think harder. Are there more bankruptcy than before the pandemic ? With an increase in interest rates which invariably brings up the loan interest rates for businesses, how can they even survive ? Except for those people who truly believes everything can be run and operate online , many brick and mortar business (airlines, hotels, F&B , theme parks, cinemas, retail outlets, etc) will not be able to take on the hike in interest rates.

I have said previously the stock market since the QE is on steroids and it will need more and more stimulus to go higher and higher. The moment the drug is removed from the system, it will goes into a withdrawal mode and suffer its long due side effects. Of course, it is good for the market in the long run but with everything so hazy and uncertain now, who wants to plan long term? Who wants to wait that long? Who does not want to become a millionaire, billionaire or trillionaire asap ?

This is the best of time , this is the worst of time. Two sides of a coin, it depends on how you look at it. Trade wisely, trade safely !
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