Dear Traders,
The Dollar reached our first target, being the daily long-term trendline, which is holding the Dollar in the bullish trend.
If we look at the Daily chart, price is in a short-term trendline and created a daily lower high in the middle of the week to reach the daily trendline. From here, price is sitting at the .382 fibonacci retracement combined with the trendline and looks like it is showing deceleration at this level. Therefor, the expectation of an intra-day pullback on the DXY is expected to later push through to this daily trendline and target the TP2 at the .618 retracement level on the weekly and daily chart.
Explained in our video's about the dollar index, price has been reaching that .618 retracement on the weekly timeframe twice before after being extremely corrective so therefor this is expected to happen again in Q4.
So what's next? I am still positioned in several EURUSD long positions and a small AUDUSD long position (Took partial profits at 68), our stops are at breakeven and at the start of the week a dollar pullback is expected and more EUR/USD longs are on watch, pushing towards that 1.11 and maybe 1.1150 area.
One last tip, the weekly chart on the DXY created a star formation rejecting all our supply area's, most often than not we experience a bit of a pullback after this pattern on the intra-day charts, so don't jump in Dollar shorts if you're not positioned yet. Price might reject the trendline and bounce back to value before trying to attack the trendline for the bigger breakout.
Best regards,
The NCFX Team.
The Dollar reached our first target, being the daily long-term trendline, which is holding the Dollar in the bullish trend.
If we look at the Daily chart, price is in a short-term trendline and created a daily lower high in the middle of the week to reach the daily trendline. From here, price is sitting at the .382 fibonacci retracement combined with the trendline and looks like it is showing deceleration at this level. Therefor, the expectation of an intra-day pullback on the DXY is expected to later push through to this daily trendline and target the TP2 at the .618 retracement level on the weekly and daily chart.
Explained in our video's about the dollar index, price has been reaching that .618 retracement on the weekly timeframe twice before after being extremely corrective so therefor this is expected to happen again in Q4.
So what's next? I am still positioned in several EURUSD long positions and a small AUDUSD long position (Took partial profits at 68), our stops are at breakeven and at the start of the week a dollar pullback is expected and more EUR/USD longs are on watch, pushing towards that 1.11 and maybe 1.1150 area.
One last tip, the weekly chart on the DXY created a star formation rejecting all our supply area's, most often than not we experience a bit of a pullback after this pattern on the intra-day charts, so don't jump in Dollar shorts if you're not positioned yet. Price might reject the trendline and bounce back to value before trying to attack the trendline for the bigger breakout.
Best regards,
The NCFX Team.
Trade closed: target reached:
Target Two is reached, which is the DXY .618 retracement from the last weekly corrective structure. Price might go slightly lower towards the .75 retracement but is likely to see a bullish move next week.
Personally, closing dollar shorts next week is in the game plan.
Best regards,
The NCFX Team.
Personally, closing dollar shorts next week is in the game plan.
Best regards,
The NCFX Team.