I don't expect USD to rebound aggresively but there are some chance we start to price in the Next Interest rate hike at this level. However, my expectation is a long period of consolidation around this pricing. Hitting the 99.665 mark and having a good pull back will be fundamental to confirm the reversal yet.
RSI is exahusted, as well as MACD. However, as the steam in GBP and EUR rallies start to fade and look for supports, the USD will get some headwinds in mantaining around this level. for the mid term. I´d project a clear reversal formation appearing.
This Quarter is marked by the growth of the GBP and EUR, as well as the further weakening of the JPY. As Britain tries to control inflation wiith low growth, and EUR deepens its recession and the chance that the bank of Japan adjusts its interest rates. The USD will mantain a downward trend with clear Lower highs and lower lows.
The momentum gained by this histrical drop and the lowing pospects of a rate hike in August, will bear consequences in whether the USD will come stronger than this level in this quarter but chances are slim. even if there is a good rebound to the current downtrend.
As the ECB announced that it may only have one more increase of rates for 2023. The USD and EUR may level more, however, the EUR has the upper hand for momentum and the higher chances of another increase in 2023.
This is important to bear in mind since EUR is the biggest component of the DXY and therefore the rate of many other currencies is deeply affected by it.
Personally, I only see good growth of the USD in periferial exchange rates, such as SGD, CNH, and the reversal of the MXN gains. SEK, NOK, AUD and JPY are other currencies to watch for major votality that could prove very rewarding.
It is essential to note that we entered the phase where the market will be eyeing, who keeps interests rate stable the longest, and as they all level similarly, the incoming recessesion. the market will weight in economic performances and trade accounts at the last quarter of the year.
In the last quarter of the year, economically speaking we will see the US is coming out with strong growth, but capped by high debt levels. on the same note, trade accounts for the GBP, EUR and JPY are in perilous and struggle with high debt. Of these, currently, Only GBP and CAD enjoy the lowest premia of the G7 economies + China.. This could see the second leg of strengning of safe currencies and assets considered safe heavens, like GOLD. Similarly, emerginng market currencies like CHN, BRL, KOR and perhaps the indian rupee will probably see great gains in late Q4 2023 to Q1 of 2024.
RSI is exahusted, as well as MACD. However, as the steam in GBP and EUR rallies start to fade and look for supports, the USD will get some headwinds in mantaining around this level. for the mid term. I´d project a clear reversal formation appearing.
This Quarter is marked by the growth of the GBP and EUR, as well as the further weakening of the JPY. As Britain tries to control inflation wiith low growth, and EUR deepens its recession and the chance that the bank of Japan adjusts its interest rates. The USD will mantain a downward trend with clear Lower highs and lower lows.
The momentum gained by this histrical drop and the lowing pospects of a rate hike in August, will bear consequences in whether the USD will come stronger than this level in this quarter but chances are slim. even if there is a good rebound to the current downtrend.
As the ECB announced that it may only have one more increase of rates for 2023. The USD and EUR may level more, however, the EUR has the upper hand for momentum and the higher chances of another increase in 2023.
This is important to bear in mind since EUR is the biggest component of the DXY and therefore the rate of many other currencies is deeply affected by it.
Personally, I only see good growth of the USD in periferial exchange rates, such as SGD, CNH, and the reversal of the MXN gains. SEK, NOK, AUD and JPY are other currencies to watch for major votality that could prove very rewarding.
It is essential to note that we entered the phase where the market will be eyeing, who keeps interests rate stable the longest, and as they all level similarly, the incoming recessesion. the market will weight in economic performances and trade accounts at the last quarter of the year.
In the last quarter of the year, economically speaking we will see the US is coming out with strong growth, but capped by high debt levels. on the same note, trade accounts for the GBP, EUR and JPY are in perilous and struggle with high debt. Of these, currently, Only GBP and CAD enjoy the lowest premia of the G7 economies + China.. This could see the second leg of strengning of safe currencies and assets considered safe heavens, like GOLD. Similarly, emerginng market currencies like CHN, BRL, KOR and perhaps the indian rupee will probably see great gains in late Q4 2023 to Q1 of 2024.