themarketzone

Closed below resistance - Where to next?

INDEX:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
Since it latest decline from the bearish Gartley pattern , $DXY             managed to recover some of it losses and in fact completed a 61.8 Fib retracement.
$DXY             is just below its 50 SMA line and above the Major structure zone near 97 and that could be a zone to start looking for counter USD setups.
But.. During the last two trading days (last week), $DXY             was able to climb above a minor downtrend line and close above it, possibly breaking out of the Pennant pattern (continuation pattern).
Another bullish signal is that $DXY             is still above its 200 SMA line after the latest false break.

So to sum it up we have three reasons to be bearish (61.8-78.6 retracement, Major structure and the 50 SMA line) and 2 reasons to be bullish (Price above 200 SMA line, Pennant breakout)

$DXY             is being squeezed between its 200 SMA line and its 50 SMA line in a similar way that we recently saw $SPY being squeezed (just before AUG breakdown).

A close above 97.5 could lead to a rally towards 100 - That's the bullish scenario.
The stop loss must be at least below 95.

If the price will remain below 97, it will allow to short it with stop loss above 98.

See the potential R/R for each scenario in the chart (for initial target zones)

This analysis is part of the Weekly Markets Analysis newsletters

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Tomer J,
The Market Zone - You trading Edge
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