LDC870
Long

Weekly TTM Squeeze Setup

NASDAQ:ENPH   ENPHASE ENERGY INC
So, assuming this weekly candle holds up, ENPH has a really nice TTM momentum squeeze setup on the weekly chart. For comparison, the last time ENPH had a squeeze breakout like this was July 2014. Here's the chart:


Over the course of ten weeks, ENPH ran from sub 10.00 to a high of 18.00! Past performance in no way guarantees future results, but the point is that if you trade a a squeeze breakout on the weekly chart, you can really make some money. And the setups are very similar between July 2014 and January 2019; ADX below 20, RSX above the midline but below the oversold line with a strong upward direction. The RSX for the current setup is less oversold than the the start of the July 2014 breakout, so there's an argument that this one may have even more "juice" than that one.

I predicted we'd see 6.75 by the end of January and we hit it a couple of weeks earlier than I expected. I predict that this setup breaks 8.00 before the end of March.
Jan 19
Comment: Here's the updated chart for the end of the week. Squeeze is released, our indicators still look positive:

I've also updated the upper resistance trendlines on this chart and added the price-momentum oscillator. Note that it appears a PMO signal crossover is imminent.

This is a medium- to long-term play. I made some good profit on Feb. and May 7.5 calls, which I purchased a while back at .10 and .25, respectively. I'm holding the May calls, but I sold the Feb. calls at .20-.25. If ENPH has a steep pullback to 5.80-6.00 this coming week/early the following week, I may try to pick up some more of the May calls sub .35; the Feb. calls are intriguing sub .10, but also a risky play with the exercise window quickly closing. I would feel a lot better buying back the Feb. calls if the next ER comes before the expiry date.

There are some macro factors to watch. The VIX is getting REALLY close to the 16.50 bottom mark, which is roughly the point at which the market has sold off in recent months. If the VIX bounces off 16.50, we could see another market-wide downturn; if 16.50 breaks support, this rally could extend and ramp up significantly. Also keep an eye on oil prices; as long as they continue to rebound, demand for solar will continue to rise.
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