9/1 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
The trading week so far has been marked by a powerful rally, with four massive green days in a row. We've retraced 60% of the selloff that took bears the entire month of August in just four days. The combination of failed breakdowns and runners has proven incredibly effective, leading to the largest gain of 2023 for me in terms of points.
Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Mixed
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Mixed
🔮 Crypto: Near unchanged
World News
Non-Farms Payrolls report reinforces the Fed soft landing narrative.
Key Structures
After a relentless 4-day rally, ES finally experienced a pullback. The ES put in the bottom trigger nearly a week ago, which led to a significant trade gain. However, the risk of rug pulls increased after 4 green days into a major resistance. Despite an attempt at a sell, the dip was bought again, suggesting that bears have lacked follow through.
Support Levels
Support levels include 4516 (major), 4502 (major), 4493, 4479-81, 4466, 4448-54 (major), 4440, 4425 (major), 4411 (major), 4400, 4384, 4378-76 (major), 4356 (major), 4348, 4335, 4320-25 (major), 4311, 4297 (major)
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels include 4527-31 (major), 4537 (major), 4544, 4454, 4565-68 (major), 4581 (major), 4592, 4597, 4607-4612 (major), 4618, 4624 (major), 4632, 4644, 4657 (major), 4662, 4677-4680 (major), 4691, 4701 (major), 4715.
Trading Plan
Today is the final session before a holiday weekend, and it will likely be a mess to trade. The bull flag that broke out has support at 4502, and therefore, bulls want that to hold after NFP today. The bear case would need 4502 to fail. In general, today is a day to be cautious with trading due to the recent rally and upcoming holiday.
Wrap Up
This week has seen a "trade of the year" with a 155 point rally. However, with today being the final session before a holiday weekend and NFP, the market conditions are poor for trading. The general lean for today is a dip to 4502, maybe undercut to 4492, then try to continue back up to build a range more.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The trading week so far has been marked by a powerful rally, with four massive green days in a row. We've retraced 60% of the selloff that took bears the entire month of August in just four days. The combination of failed breakdowns and runners has proven incredibly effective, leading to the largest gain of 2023 for me in terms of points.
Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Mixed
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Mixed
🔮 Crypto: Near unchanged
World News
Non-Farms Payrolls report reinforces the Fed soft landing narrative.
Key Structures
After a relentless 4-day rally, ES finally experienced a pullback. The ES put in the bottom trigger nearly a week ago, which led to a significant trade gain. However, the risk of rug pulls increased after 4 green days into a major resistance. Despite an attempt at a sell, the dip was bought again, suggesting that bears have lacked follow through.
Support Levels
Support levels include 4516 (major), 4502 (major), 4493, 4479-81, 4466, 4448-54 (major), 4440, 4425 (major), 4411 (major), 4400, 4384, 4378-76 (major), 4356 (major), 4348, 4335, 4320-25 (major), 4311, 4297 (major)
Resistance Levels
Resistance levels include 4527-31 (major), 4537 (major), 4544, 4454, 4565-68 (major), 4581 (major), 4592, 4597, 4607-4612 (major), 4618, 4624 (major), 4632, 4644, 4657 (major), 4662, 4677-4680 (major), 4691, 4701 (major), 4715.
Trading Plan
Today is the final session before a holiday weekend, and it will likely be a mess to trade. The bull flag that broke out has support at 4502, and therefore, bulls want that to hold after NFP today. The bear case would need 4502 to fail. In general, today is a day to be cautious with trading due to the recent rally and upcoming holiday.
Wrap Up
This week has seen a "trade of the year" with a 155 point rally. However, with today being the final session before a holiday weekend and NFP, the market conditions are poor for trading. The general lean for today is a dip to 4502, maybe undercut to 4492, then try to continue back up to build a range more.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
