ES Weekly Levels Dec(11-15)

Market tested support last week and the recovered to close the week flat. NQ successfully retested the 21 ema and ES pulled back and recovered from the 9 ema. Market held to top of the range just below the July high setting up for a break in either direction going into this week's CPI data and FOMC rate decision.

SUMMARY

• ES finished the week with a gain of 0.12 % after trading in a range of 62 pts.
  
• ES successfully re-tested the 9 ema and closed at the top of the recent range.
  
• Dec Futures contract rolled over to Mar so continuous contract levels have changed
  
• Jul 27th high within striking distance, but price must push through the MTF 886 Fib retracement
  
• First resistance is 886 Fib RT (4666)
  
• First support is Sept 1st high (4647)
  
• If price breaks the 886 Fib a move to 4730 is likely
  
• If price breaks below the Sept 1st high a move to 4574 is likely.
  
• CPI data due out Tues & FOMC Rates decision on Wed
  
• XLE, XLP & XLB showed relative weakness while XLY outperformed
  
• With 10year yield at 4.23% risk assets cont to show strength with small cap growth & BTC posting another positive week
  
• VIX at 12.35
  

Comment:

$ES_F blasted through first resistance at the 886 Fib and has already broken through my upside target at the July high. Room now to the 1.13 fib extension at 4813. Mar 29th high is also in play. Would expect a pause here but the buying has been vicious so will be careful with shorts. If the July 27th high does not hold a move back to the 886 Fib breakout point is possible.
Note that levels have changed due to the contract roll over.