The market traded at key resistance for the 2nd week in a row just below the July highs. Price has been holding the highs but feels very extended and is due for at least a mild pull back. That said price often needs and exhaustive push higher before reversing so a spike move into the July high first is not out of the question. Its notable that DOW, Russel & S&P finished the week stronger than Nasdaq and breath improved with another strong week for small caps.
SUMMARY
SUMMARY
- ES finished the week with a gain of 0.78 % after trading in a range of 60 pts.
- ES finished 5th positive week in a row and closed above the Sept 1st high.
- Jul 27th high within striking distance, but price must push through the MTF 886 Fib retracement
- First resistance is 886 Fib RT (4618)
- First support is Sept 1st high (4596)
- If price breaks the 886 Fib a move to 4700 is likely
- If price breaks below the 786 Fib a move to 4500 is likely.
- Key econ data due out this week is US PMI on Tuesday, ADP Employment on Wed & Non Farm Payrolls on Friday.
- Breath broadened last week with Russel & Dow outperforming the S&P and Nasdaq.
- Interest sensitive sectors XLRE, XLF & XLU had a strong week
- 10year yield dropped to 4.19%. VIX below 13
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Comment:
$ES_F rejected the Sep 1st high yesterday and pulled back to the 9em/786 Fib level. Price will trade within these to levels until something breaks. A move below the 786 Fib makes a trip to the Aug 16th high likely. A move above the Sept 1st high makes a trip to the 886 Fib likely. Above the 886 we are going to the July high.
