ES broke into this bigger time frame Resistance are back in June, all the shorts who were looking for market crash or reversal got trapped below and became our Support.
Cost Basis was built on top of that in 4460-4375 range, once we ran the Stops over 4487 that provided the buying to get us towards the top for this Resistance at 4666-4570 but once we got inside we went sideways in a tighter distribution range instead of getting follow through.
In last weeks Weekly prep we knew that we needed to get over 4615-10 area and hold to see continuation higher from here and if not the buying up here was mostly momentum buying and if we start breaking lower stops we can continue lower back towards our Cost Basis areas.
08.01 We got that rejection from 4615-10 and opened on the gap under temp Support which meant the bid that held us up over 4590 on Tuesday was gone. Once we broke that structure and closed under we trapped buyers as supply.
What can we look forward to now? Well on bigger scale in my opinion we are in a bigger time frame distribution range, and the goal is to sell product at higher prices to the trapped shorts until market cleans up and decides on direction out of here. This might take some time to clean up as we had a big party getting back up here.
UNLESS Market gets under 4375-4290 area and holds under or gets over 4570-4666 and holds then we will balance in this range and do cleaning.
This broken structure now becomes our supply, we have Short Stops around 4530-50-60-70 areas but also Supply is right above it so they look pretty strong for now, our lower Support stops on the other hand don't look so strong because we have been away for some time.
If market takes out this 4590-80 area we could see continuation for more stops lower.
Going forward we can trade this range from area to area, unless we get a bigger change of direction and visible Structure breaks. If we stay in this range once we find Support trading might not be easy as we could get more choppy days and two way trading without much follow through because now we have Supply and most likely still have buying as well.
Unless we sell off hard here and break all the lower stops or bounce back over 4520 then we might see market consolidate around 4370-4500 area, holding under 4520-40 will mean continued weakness and I would think this can bring a test of 4300-4290-60 at some point by October. But we focus and gather new market generated information every day and update the outlook as anything can happen.
Cost Basis was built on top of that in 4460-4375 range, once we ran the Stops over 4487 that provided the buying to get us towards the top for this Resistance at 4666-4570 but once we got inside we went sideways in a tighter distribution range instead of getting follow through.
In last weeks Weekly prep we knew that we needed to get over 4615-10 area and hold to see continuation higher from here and if not the buying up here was mostly momentum buying and if we start breaking lower stops we can continue lower back towards our Cost Basis areas.
08.01 We got that rejection from 4615-10 and opened on the gap under temp Support which meant the bid that held us up over 4590 on Tuesday was gone. Once we broke that structure and closed under we trapped buyers as supply.
What can we look forward to now? Well on bigger scale in my opinion we are in a bigger time frame distribution range, and the goal is to sell product at higher prices to the trapped shorts until market cleans up and decides on direction out of here. This might take some time to clean up as we had a big party getting back up here.
UNLESS Market gets under 4375-4290 area and holds under or gets over 4570-4666 and holds then we will balance in this range and do cleaning.
This broken structure now becomes our supply, we have Short Stops around 4530-50-60-70 areas but also Supply is right above it so they look pretty strong for now, our lower Support stops on the other hand don't look so strong because we have been away for some time.
If market takes out this 4590-80 area we could see continuation for more stops lower.
Going forward we can trade this range from area to area, unless we get a bigger change of direction and visible Structure breaks. If we stay in this range once we find Support trading might not be easy as we could get more choppy days and two way trading without much follow through because now we have Supply and most likely still have buying as well.
Unless we sell off hard here and break all the lower stops or bounce back over 4520 then we might see market consolidate around 4370-4500 area, holding under 4520-40 will mean continued weakness and I would think this can bring a test of 4300-4290-60 at some point by October. But we focus and gather new market generated information every day and update the outlook as anything can happen.
Comment:
Slowly moving supply lower and filling lower stops.
Comment:
We are coming down much faster than expected but can see how we keep trapping longs on the way down, taking out lower stops which provides more selling to keep pushing the prices lower, market is looking for the bid.
Comment:
Beauty move, happened much faster than I thought.... but that tells you we trapped supply above and selling it down towards our buyers here in Support. Most of the buying that ran this up was momentum buying and most sold over 4500-4600, taking out the stop areas snow balled us over here.
Comment:
Friday doesn't feel like a low yet, if we can't bounce here from first touch which Friday didn't look like a good one then we could see more continuation lower. 4330-20-4290 Next areas to watch if we cant hold over 4400 and get over 4420.
Comment:
How mechanical has this market been??? Got to love it! I would watch if we don't have enough selling yet to break our Support when we might still get some balancing action in this 4360-4450s area for some time to do distribution lower and build up more Supply. Unless we can take out 4359.50 and accept under then we could see a move towards lower targets and that Contract Roll Gap. PA has been very choppy so need to be careful trading this and careful with longs because we now have supply which means longs will take longer to set up and might not work as well while we are holding under 4450s as that means continued weakness. If we do get over 4449.75 and accept over then we have a shot at 4487-65 again which we would need to take out to have any chance at 4500 again.
Comment:
Looks like we have trapped more short under 4487-60, will that act as our Support going forward? If so we could see move back towards 4570 and eventually could make it up towards 4640-60s Resistance before we can see 4300-4200s again. Unless we get through 4487-60s with some volume and hold under then that would change things. So far we flushed the Supply that built up at Resistance area into the cost basis, built new position over it and trapped shorts for Support under 4460 when we ran it.