DaddySawbucks

Blowoff Top Incoming: Do Not Short Yet!

CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
Chart says all. Pattern from August 2020, now making same insane run. The 1.62 Fibo extension from September correction is at 4720.

Do not short based on:

"I think the price is too high!"
"It's overbought, must come down!"
"How can it get any higher?! Already nosebleed!"
"I feel lucky!"

Short on signal; the engulfing bear candle after blowup. IF it follows overlay, gonna be Tues 9 Nov...
The retracement after top should fall to 50 DMA IMO... ~4480; then perhaps another run in December?! GLTA!

This is not advice, just another tutorial worth evry penny u paid for it!
Comment: May have topped 11/04, but might well get higher yet on Friday.

More to follow...
Comment: Getting a buy signal on WT in the 5m in Fri PM trade, going long for power hour scalp
Comment: Moved ITM, scalped it
Comment: Reloaded and scalped again, back in cash
Trade active: Entered short EOD Friday 11/05, Happy Guy Fawke's Day. See related posts for details.

In late trade after gap fill meeting strong R at 4700. Shorting the pushback; IMO we topped today.

GLTA!
Trade active: Entered more bear spreads 11/08 EOD. Might get surprised Tues 11/09 if they get one final pump from it.. hedged my bets.
Comment: Added five spreads each altogether in 30 put spreads now. Enough for ON IMO.
Comment: Aiaiai looking bearish EOD, again... opened a SPY VCS short the 29 Nov 478 calls vs 488s, ten to start
Trade active: Opened 5 VIX Nov $17 calls
Trade active: Closed on this and flipped calls on the bounce. Although the move was sudden and impressive, ETFs only sold off $2 by EOD and RTY is still pumped high, everything still near ATHs, a real bear move is coming IMO...
Comment: NB: All the real action of the day on 11/09 occurred between 09:45 and 10:05. Tanked off after gap fill for 20 minutes and spent the rest of session just bumping along the bottom. Often this all-day bearishness will be followed by a rally on the next day.

Sometimes you get an EOD rally but I wouldn't bet on this one today. might close at LOTD...
Comment: 11/09 close of 4685 just ~30 pips below the ATH. Not a huge selloff, more like an opening salvo. This dip will probably get bought up IMO. Not betting on it. Just watching in cash.
Comment: AH futurrz bought up, sold off. ON price testing support, break below could start the cascade
Trade closed: target reached: See related ideas, closing this one, clearly shorting time!
Comment: Follow-up, still do not feel that going full bore short is a good idea... another damned parabolic can come in here anytime, NQ has not fully double topped, need to see QQQ go over $400, ES might get push to another ATH.

IF you follow Peter Eliades, very useful insights, he projected top on 5 nov and now claims this will prove to be the ultimate ATH. So far, it holds, check out his app:
https://www.stockmarketcycles.com/servic...
Comment: Oops this public commentary channel link works:
https://www.youtube.com/c/stockmarketcyc...
Comment: Still waiting for the parabolic endgame
Trade active: Might be here now, might push even higher, could cocntinue to rise into early December. 1-3 Dec might be new ATHs, typically bullish then.

Euphoria over Powell reappointment faded quickly but now it bulls again, any position here is extremely high risk; flipped puts today and back in cash.

Anything can happen now, and probably will!
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