DaddySawbucks

Are we there yet?!

Short
TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Watch the indicators. Been expecting the vertical parabola finishing move.

Could be amazing if it follows overlay, price action strongly resembles it.

Not recommending a specific price or strategy. Be vewy vewy qwiet.. we is hunting wabbits!

DYODD. GLTA!
Trade active: At the Fibo. Took a gapfill position on QQQ, closed it. So damned Bullish... gap may not fill today, or might be later, who knows?!
Comment: Shorted in dailies and covered again. Gap is not filling after first hour in session might stay up until PM.

In my sperience if the gap dont fill in first half hour it just hangs high... dailies get killed.
Comment: Yeah played it for a third time got my money back, feels like algos programmed to buy QQQ at 400 fgs... gap still open after 2 hours in session, might not close today IMO
Comment: Trading dailies is so dicey... paid 70c for the 400s, closed for 80c, now atm less than an hour later they trade for just 72c again... time decay is terrific... you can only win if it moves immediately in your favor, so much risk for so little reward!
Comment: And yes, bounced from 400 again fgs... program trading IMO
Comment: SandP been holding +30 all morning... will it sell after noon? Might sell a bit, then another bounce into power hour likely... shorts probly won't pay today;
IMO u do not want to be short in the last hour of trade on a bully Friday...
consider buying the 40c SPY calls at 3PM for a power play?!
Comment: Those 400 daily puts now trading for 55c, these indicators flashed green and spared me from making a big mistake!

Trading without them is like flying blind in clouds... you gotta trust your instruments!
Comment: Yeah OMG look how it bulls, shoulda bought calls even though it makes no sense to go long here! Ahh well...
Comment: Mid-day weakness usually followed by EOD pop as the shorts scramble to cover... would not chase this IMO
Trade active: Played bounce, closed, going short in QQQ Nov 399P
Trade active: Selling VCS Dec 480 vs 494 Net cr 2.25, in 15 spreads
Comment: Added 5 spreads now short 20 SPY 480 calls, long 20 QQQ 399 puts. Rolled the short legs down to ten dollar spreads
Trade active: Entered short EOD Friday 11/05, Happy Guy Fawke's Day. See related posts for details.

In late trade after gap fill meeting strong R at 4700. Shorting the pushback; IMO we topped today.

GLTA!
Trade active: AH rolled the short legs out two days and down $5 now in $15 bear spreads, net debit 0.01c
Comment: Might cascade next week IMO. Holding shorts over.
Trade closed manually: Flipped all the shorts out on mid-day weakness and gap fill. Might bull again, watch for another stupid pump.

Made change on calls went oversold in the 3m and pumped, then more dump, and pump... lol
Comment: AT 2pm unmet margin calls get covered at market...!
Comment: Overlay still filing, projects selling on/after 10 Nov. Watch, wait. The Big Sell will come... patience!

Friday 19th >Triple Witching... could get bloody IMO
Trade active: There's the short-covering bounce; entering bear spreads
Comment: Shorted DIA in 364P, QQQ in 399P; Nov contracts vs weeklies, a dozen each.

See how SPY fares Tues before entering more VCS
Comment: Watch RSI... see the notch on 1 Sep RSI, a vertical punchup? been waiting to see that to really short it!
Comment: IMO can see a retest of ATH on Tues, would not get deep into shorting just yet... might sell ON, might pump?!
Trade active: Getting bearish EOD, opened VCS on SPY, ten spreads, and five VIX calls, Nov 17s. Might be disappointed if it pops again Tues, all bets hedged but the calls outright.
Trade closed manually: Closed out all on this swoop. Look at the overlay, see this sell move matches a prior event? Expect more nutty buying into the dip IMO.. parabolic Weds/Thurs?

BE REAL CAREFUL ABOUT CHASING THIS SELL IMO!!
Trade active: Scalping calls on oversold, watch the SqueezeMo and WT indicators, they flashed green after 2PM, closed on the weak bounce and back down she goes.

Bipolar market gone from Stupid Enthusiasm to Extreme Pessimism overnight. Would not keep shorts ON, likely get a dead cat in the AM, short the rally if it comes IMO
Comment: Put this selloff in perspective. SPY, QQQ down about $2. This move barely registers on the daily chart as more than a minor fluctuation. Feels bearish but could easily prop up overnight again. Short if they do IMO.

Look back at September 2020, QQQ went off $15 a day on Thurs/Fri. That's what we like! Will it do it again?!
Comment: At 3PM market check shows stubbornly bearish. This is how it goes, straight up for 18 days, then BAM! And nobody wants to buy the shares they were fighting over last week, LOL.

Expect more selling soon. Not guessing what might happen in the last hour today. Made bank on puts and calls, back in cash. It could selloff further EOD, or get a weak bounce, pure gamble atm.

More selling to be expected soon. BUT it will often jump UP first after the initial selloff, they buy the dip, then the real selling begins on the third day. That would be Thursday/Friday, see how closely this move follows the overlay... will history repeat?!
Comment: WT indicator gave a green light at 15:15; squeezemo is turned up and red>gray, RSI lifting off lows. Might rally IMO. Think about closing any shorts... probly gonna lift Weds AM from oversold.
Comment: Did get a small lift EOD, hardly worth fooling with, did not risk any penny. 1/09 close of 4685 just ~30 pips below the ATH. Not a huge selloff, more like an opening salvo. This dip will probably get bought up IMO. Not betting on it. Just watching in cash.
Comment: AH futurrz bought up, sold off. ON price testing support, break below could start the cascade
Trade active: Scalped calls on the gapfill, will it sell again?!
Comment: Shorted EOD in QQQ, might get waterfall IMO
Comment: See latest related idea. Another overlay projection, ought to get a cascade tomorrow IMO. Be real surprised if they can bounce this one; short it if they do!
Comment: An obvious short entry position but algos are propping up the price, QQQ bounced nine times today from 391.

Should gap fill but when? Watching options decay is worse than growing grass IMO
Trade active: Another pump with a weaker lift Friday, looks like the engine running low on steam IMO, entering bear spreads in QQQ
Trade closed manually: Melting up again. They bought that dip all back up FGS. OFC it will sell again... someday. Vertical spike amazing, who knew?!
Comment: Damned thing begging to be shorted but it's ponzi Friday, do not short EOD, probly gonna give a massive short-covering burst in last quarter hour IMO
Comment: May be forming a secondary lower top around 4680. Opex week, expect more volatile soon IMO
Trade active: scalped a few pips off puts on the opening fadeback, back in cash
Trade active: power hour play in 100 calls on SPY 470, in .88 out.93, rolled into QQQ bear put spread, 26 nov 398 vs friday 391s, net debit 3.55 on 15 spreads
Comment: Closed puts on early am weakness, watch & wait
Trade active: Sorry been away late update, traveling: bought and flipped puts on the AM spike and sell-down. Nice bank on Dec puts +15%. I dont' like to flip dailies in the car, lol, and good thing cause in late PM trade passed thru a no-signal zone and got the E*Trade: App has Stopped! Submit Error Report?!"

Yeah i got a fkg error for u buddy, needed to close those dogs and I can't drop an order! LOL all good now.

Gonna sit in cash, look Sand P only sold off 8 pips fgs, probly try to bounce it again Thursday IMO
Comment: Duplicating post for all to see:
Follow-up, still do not feel that going full bore short is a good idea... another damned parabolic can come in here anytime, NQ has not fully double topped, need to see QQQ go over $400, ES might get push to another ATH.

IF you follow Peter Eliades, very useful insights, he projected top on 5 nov and now claims this will prove to be the ultimate ATH. So far, it holds, check out his app:
https://www.stockmarketcycles.com/servic...
Comment: Oops the working link, public free commentary and charts:
https://www.youtube.com/c/stockmarketcyc...
Comment: IMO this monster is just not yet done getting stupid high; expect this pullback to finish up before Thanksgiving break and bull again the week after to 3 Dec IMO; expect a nominal new ATH in early Dec?
Comment: WOW, so this is why we ONLY USE LIMIT ORDERS AH: Watching IWM, trading AH for 235.85, -0.10, suddenly spikes to 237.65 +1.80!! I thought, "ZOMG! FED CUT RATES?!"

But alas, lol, it was some fool who entered a Buy at Market order AH... the marker makers can make any price they please when you drop those open orders!!
Comment: Amazing pump, again...triple witching may soften it up a bit, could still bull anyway...
Comment: Closing at HOTD but SPX off from ATH, RTY losing on day, DJT and DJI both in the red... only MOMO got FOMO.
Short QQQ in bear spreads, see related post. Morning sessions have been choppy, expect more of the same
Comment: Narrow range on TW Friday, some selling and backfilling but DJI gap down did not fill in day; makes me wonder whether it will fill in short holiday on light trade volume, NQ may push higher.

No positions, wait, see.
Comment: Banked QQQ 400p in am trade, scalping calls after has not been very profitable, so little bounce but SPY looks to be firming up and maybe setting stage for a rally IMO
Comment: Almost all today's selling is tech stonks in NQ; RTY + ES off only a bit now, DJI is flat and DJT turns green- headed for a bounce from oversold?!
Comment: Now DJI is up 100 pips and DJT green all day. All the selling is NQ, it's not a broad-based selloff. Do not expect much lower as S1 on SPX holds 4660 today.
Watch for confirmation and possible pivot higher again.
Trade active: Made bank both ways calling it good for today. Look how we got a Hammer Doji on SPX... more bullishness ahead IMO, S1 held.
Comment: Bought SPY calls EOD. Watch futures turn green. Nice little selloff probly spark another rally IMO
Comment: Was a long grind. Probly consolidate for few days before it moves higher IMO. Watch for signals and indicators.
Comment: Overnight futurz traded down to fri close, would expect intraday to see SPX close the gap and follow suit.

Might get a test of the Friday low or a higher low IMO, NQ1 got bearish at night again...
Trade active: Closed the ON calls in open, bought puts, rolled into calls, back in cash. Choppy!
Comment: Entering R zone ~4580, might be prudent to close longs IMO; every bull run starts with a pop followed by a pullback to ~.68 Fibo. Then higher, not all at once.

DJI strong again today, flight to quality in blue chips.
Small caps picking up some of their losses.

FOMC next week followed by triple witching, could get pushed back to a higher low, eh?
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