10/10 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Looking Ahead
Recap
Friday was a significant day for the ES, with it reclaiming its core bull market rising trendline from the October 2022 lows at ~4310. This week began with a significant gap down due to weekend headline catalyst out of the middle east. However, the action at the open demonstrated just how powerful simple technicals remain even in the face of geopolitical headline risk.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up but Mainland China down
🌍 Europe: Up strongly
🌎 US Index Futures: Very near unchanged
🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down a bit
Major Global Catalysts
Key Structures
The core rising trendline from October 2022's low is of utmost importance. The market agrees - Last Tuesday, it finally failed after 3 tests in the prior week causing a deep flush to 4235. Last Thursday, we backtested the line twice from below and rejected. Last Friday, it finally reclaimed, causing a monster short squeeze and putting bulls back in the drivers seat.
Support Levels
4366, 4348 (major), 4336 (major), 4323, 4310-15 (major), 4302, 4291 (major), 4278, 4268, 4254, 4247 (major), 4238, 4225-30 (major), 4213, 4205 (major), 4195, 4190 (major), 4175, 4165 (major)
Resistance Levels
4375-80 (major), 4388, 4400 (major), 4418-24 (major), 4439, 4446, 4458, 4472 (major), 4488, 4497, 4507 (major), 4515 (major), 4522, 4530, 4542 (major), 4550, 4556 (major).
Trading Plan
The bulls are back in control as long as 4310-15 holds. Ideally for bulls though, ES could build a new consolidation range, between something like 4375-80 and 4336 and play ping pong in this range. For the bears, 4310-15 needs to fail for any proper bear case and fail there would start the leg to 4278 then 4247. Shorter term, 4336 fail would also likely present a good short.
Wrap Up
After two weeks of relentless selling, ES has reclaimed its core bull market trendline and held it yesterday, squeezing massively. The question now is whether there will be more follow-through. The key level to watch is 4310 - as long as this holds, the bulls are in control. However, a break below this level could signal a new leg down.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Friday was a significant day for the ES, with it reclaiming its core bull market rising trendline from the October 2022 lows at ~4310. This week began with a significant gap down due to weekend headline catalyst out of the middle east. However, the action at the open demonstrated just how powerful simple technicals remain even in the face of geopolitical headline risk.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up but Mainland China down
🌍 Europe: Up strongly
🌎 US Index Futures: Very near unchanged
🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down a bit
Major Global Catalysts
- Israel promises all out war against Gaza.
- IMF raises US growth forecast.
Key Structures
The core rising trendline from October 2022's low is of utmost importance. The market agrees - Last Tuesday, it finally failed after 3 tests in the prior week causing a deep flush to 4235. Last Thursday, we backtested the line twice from below and rejected. Last Friday, it finally reclaimed, causing a monster short squeeze and putting bulls back in the drivers seat.
Support Levels
4366, 4348 (major), 4336 (major), 4323, 4310-15 (major), 4302, 4291 (major), 4278, 4268, 4254, 4247 (major), 4238, 4225-30 (major), 4213, 4205 (major), 4195, 4190 (major), 4175, 4165 (major)
Resistance Levels
4375-80 (major), 4388, 4400 (major), 4418-24 (major), 4439, 4446, 4458, 4472 (major), 4488, 4497, 4507 (major), 4515 (major), 4522, 4530, 4542 (major), 4550, 4556 (major).
Trading Plan
The bulls are back in control as long as 4310-15 holds. Ideally for bulls though, ES could build a new consolidation range, between something like 4375-80 and 4336 and play ping pong in this range. For the bears, 4310-15 needs to fail for any proper bear case and fail there would start the leg to 4278 then 4247. Shorter term, 4336 fail would also likely present a good short.
Wrap Up
After two weeks of relentless selling, ES has reclaimed its core bull market trendline and held it yesterday, squeezing massively. The question now is whether there will be more follow-through. The key level to watch is 4310 - as long as this holds, the bulls are in control. However, a break below this level could signal a new leg down.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
