#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.12 - 5.17
Last Week :
Last week market opened above 5159.25 - 54.25 Key Resistance and gave a pull back/hold of that area showing us that it was holding as Support now. We knew that from there we could either Fail at or around VAH and pull back under that Key area or we could get through VAH and if we hold above that can bring in more buyers to give us pushes towards the above Edge.
We were able to push through VAH during Globex session creating a gap which held above VAH during RTH and gave us the first push to the above Edge. Rest of the week we spent consolidating around the Edge / above VAH without being able to push back in or even tag the VAH area which brought in more buyers to create a cost basis around that area and once selling ran out we pushed for next ranges VAL. As we saw from Fridays action we still have sellers at VAL and could not accept above 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Resistance for now, if we remember that area of 5263.25 - 5282.25 above VAL is our previously created GAP to the downside which we created when we first found the top in April, this gap was filled pretty quick but it was so big and still had Supply above so I decided to keep it and we can see on this retest that we still had Supply in it after spending time away from it.
This Week :
We are at tricky spot here as we now again have a Cost Basis and Support under us but also have Supply with Sellers above, of course this could be a spot for big reversal or for continuation through VAL inside above Value to start spending time in the BUT it could also be a tricky spot where we will spend time between this Supply and Cost Basis areas until market cleans up and accepts higher or lower. Volatility is down and we are getting closer to Summer trading which could mean even less volatility without big money trying to move the markets too much as we are now in a good spot for lower distribution, we can use the Supply above to keep us under and Supports below to keep us up while we clean up and fill orders.
Going into this week we are set to open inside 5249.75- 5199.75 Intraday Range, we are inside Previous Day Range and just at or above T2 Range which to me says watch out for slower smaller range trading. Will it be the case ? we will have to see but what we know from Friday action is that we have buyers at 5234.25 - 30.25 which is the top of our Intraday range mean and we will call current Support, we also have buying at or right under 5240-38 area which kept us above the 34-30 with only one good test of it and we have Selling at 5264.75 - 60.75 which will be our Current Intrarange Resistance if we want to try and accept in the above Range, we also need to watch out for 5256 - 54 or so area as well because we have trapped supply over it on Fridays flush, we could spend some time around these above mentioned areas until we can decide if we will accept in the new Range above or if we will build up enough Supply to fill the buyers under 5234 - 30. Yes 5249.75 - 44.75 is still Key Resistance but for now it could act more as an intraday mean between our buyers and sellers and price may want to keep coming back towards it until we can either accept over 64 - 60 and start balancing in that Mean to show acceptance or we get under 34 - 30 into that Mean to fill the buyers.
Careful for smaller ranges and quicker reversals, I have observed for now that with good entries market is giving 7-8 point clean moves until the reversals and chop come in, and will sprinkle in occasional 10 - 12+ moves but going into the beginning of the week I will focus on catching more of these 7 point moves from around the levels and not worry until bigger targets until market will show that it has potential for it because its easy to get caught up waiting for bigger moves and either giving back good profit on reversals or while waiting for continuation and end up ruining mental capital, instead can try and catch 2-3 of these 7-8 point moves and have a nice day.
Levels to watch :
Current Range 5249.75 - 5199.75
Means 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75
Key Support 5204.25 - 5199.75
5240 - 38 and Under still has Buying and 34 - 30 can keep acting as Support longer than we want but if we accept under we need to watch out for balancing between the Means
If Accept Over 5249.75 - 44.75 we have 5256 - 54 and 5264.75 - 60.75 to watch out and for price to possibly be coming back towards and under 49.75 - 44.75, would need to start balancing between 5264.75 - 5275.25 to show better acceptance in new range but if anything levels here would be
Means 5264.75 - 60.75 // 5279.25 - 75.25
Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25
IF Accept under Key Support and Edge Low levels are
Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50
Key Support 5159.25 - 5.25
Last week market opened above 5159.25 - 54.25 Key Resistance and gave a pull back/hold of that area showing us that it was holding as Support now. We knew that from there we could either Fail at or around VAH and pull back under that Key area or we could get through VAH and if we hold above that can bring in more buyers to give us pushes towards the above Edge.
We were able to push through VAH during Globex session creating a gap which held above VAH during RTH and gave us the first push to the above Edge. Rest of the week we spent consolidating around the Edge / above VAH without being able to push back in or even tag the VAH area which brought in more buyers to create a cost basis around that area and once selling ran out we pushed for next ranges VAL. As we saw from Fridays action we still have sellers at VAL and could not accept above 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Resistance for now, if we remember that area of 5263.25 - 5282.25 above VAL is our previously created GAP to the downside which we created when we first found the top in April, this gap was filled pretty quick but it was so big and still had Supply above so I decided to keep it and we can see on this retest that we still had Supply in it after spending time away from it.
This Week :
We are at tricky spot here as we now again have a Cost Basis and Support under us but also have Supply with Sellers above, of course this could be a spot for big reversal or for continuation through VAL inside above Value to start spending time in the BUT it could also be a tricky spot where we will spend time between this Supply and Cost Basis areas until market cleans up and accepts higher or lower. Volatility is down and we are getting closer to Summer trading which could mean even less volatility without big money trying to move the markets too much as we are now in a good spot for lower distribution, we can use the Supply above to keep us under and Supports below to keep us up while we clean up and fill orders.
Going into this week we are set to open inside 5249.75- 5199.75 Intraday Range, we are inside Previous Day Range and just at or above T2 Range which to me says watch out for slower smaller range trading. Will it be the case ? we will have to see but what we know from Friday action is that we have buyers at 5234.25 - 30.25 which is the top of our Intraday range mean and we will call current Support, we also have buying at or right under 5240-38 area which kept us above the 34-30 with only one good test of it and we have Selling at 5264.75 - 60.75 which will be our Current Intrarange Resistance if we want to try and accept in the above Range, we also need to watch out for 5256 - 54 or so area as well because we have trapped supply over it on Fridays flush, we could spend some time around these above mentioned areas until we can decide if we will accept in the new Range above or if we will build up enough Supply to fill the buyers under 5234 - 30. Yes 5249.75 - 44.75 is still Key Resistance but for now it could act more as an intraday mean between our buyers and sellers and price may want to keep coming back towards it until we can either accept over 64 - 60 and start balancing in that Mean to show acceptance or we get under 34 - 30 into that Mean to fill the buyers.
Careful for smaller ranges and quicker reversals, I have observed for now that with good entries market is giving 7-8 point clean moves until the reversals and chop come in, and will sprinkle in occasional 10 - 12+ moves but going into the beginning of the week I will focus on catching more of these 7 point moves from around the levels and not worry until bigger targets until market will show that it has potential for it because its easy to get caught up waiting for bigger moves and either giving back good profit on reversals or while waiting for continuation and end up ruining mental capital, instead can try and catch 2-3 of these 7-8 point moves and have a nice day.
Levels to watch :
Current Range 5249.75 - 5199.75
Means 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75
Key Support 5204.25 - 5199.75
5240 - 38 and Under still has Buying and 34 - 30 can keep acting as Support longer than we want but if we accept under we need to watch out for balancing between the Means
If Accept Over 5249.75 - 44.75 we have 5256 - 54 and 5264.75 - 60.75 to watch out and for price to possibly be coming back towards and under 49.75 - 44.75, would need to start balancing between 5264.75 - 5275.25 to show better acceptance in new range but if anything levels here would be
Means 5264.75 - 60.75 // 5279.25 - 75.25
Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25
IF Accept under Key Support and Edge Low levels are
Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50
Key Support 5159.25 - 5.25
Comment:
5264.75 - 60.75 and 56 - 54 Areas provided good resistance for the first two days and gave nice sells back under Key Resistance. We even got a flush through 5234.25 - 30.25 Support to fill the buyers under into the cost basis but as we saw price couldn't stay under there as buying sucked in all the supply that came out and we ended up consolidating around Key Resistance and an afternoon push into new ranges Value. As mentioned we would need to start balancing between 64.75 - 75.25 to show acceptance in this new range which we now have started doing. We can say 5295.50 - 5244.75 is now our intraday range at least until we see clear acceptance back under or over it. This means we will trade its levels going forward, going into today we could expect more balancing here between the means which would be an easy spot to get chopped up so really have to be careful trading in the middle today, ideally better execution will be from the trading between the means or out of the Mean towards Key Areas if it sets up for it. Holding over 5264.75 - 60.75 will mean stability continue balancing over it and eventually IF enough buying comes in we could still see a push out of it from 5275.25 - 79.25 towards Key Resistance at 5295.50 - 90.25 if that happens need to be careful with looking for continuation through Key Resistance because we would need strong volume to take it out to see any, otherwise 90s should keep us under. We still have data at 830 so that may shake things up we have to see how it looks when the dust settles but main options today either spend the day balancing around 5279.25 - 60.75 +/- areas, balance then push towards 90 or of course if sell volume comes in we could see a move back under 60 towards previous Key Resistance at 49.75 - 44.75 to see if its Support but this is less likely since yesterdays move has trapped shorts under 5256 - 54 // 49 - 44 unless volume comes in to go there.
Comment:
Data did shake things up and made a push over 95-90 Key Resistance. Going forward we now can watch if we accept over it and make this our range which would be 5341 - 5290.25, its levels : Means 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Which is also VAH and Key Resistance at 5341 - 36. IF we can't stay over or continue over 5310.50 - 06.50 then we watch if we build up inventory here and later can come back under 95.50 - 90.25 towards the Previous Mean.
Comment:
Market pushed through another whole range right into Key Resistance by end of day, we are outside of Value now and holding above VAH if we push through this 41 - 36 we can see a test of the Edge bottom around the 5348 area and may even attempt a push into the Edge. We do have to be careful with continuation inside the Edge as that will be a spot for profit taking and may keep us either under the Edge or just inside it under its top at 5360s. Over Key Resistance if we accept our range will be 5336 - 5386.50 its Means are 5352 - 56 // 5366.50 - 70.50 and Key Resistance 5386.50 - 81.50. One thing to note is first tests of big areas like the Edge which we haven't tested yet more often than not provide a response in opposite direction, how strong it is we have to see and when it comes but if we push to the Edge bottom or can't accept over 5356 - 52 and stay above then we will have a chance to see a push from Edge back towards VAH, especially getting close to the weekend and being at a good place to take profit we might see competing selling which could finally give us a pull back towards 5324.75 - 20.75 but of course we would have to put in some volume around the Edge first and then come back under 5341 - 36 which could take some time and happen once everyone figures out that the market wont be going higher. If we can't accept over 5341 - 36 we could also just balance in this area between the Edge and VAH to build up until we can either go higher and test the Edge or accept back under 24.75 - 20 which is the area we might have trapped some shorts today.
Comment:
We also can't forget that if this still has legs behind it doesn't matter that its been looking weak or slow because of low Volume, we don't have over hang above now and we could still keep pushing inside the Edge and even above it towards the next VAL which is not market but would be around 5393 - 4505, at least a move towards its bottom area into 5380 - 90s is possible... for us to back fill we would either need sellers competing or spend some time building the Supply so can't be trying to short too early unless it shows it, could continue to slowly grind higher over the Edge and then start building Supply above.
Comment:
Market is back to hard mode after a big run through Value and out from last 2 days, these are the areas to be careful and not get too excited as we know longs will be taking profit over Value and shorts are trapped in Value. We do have data again at 8:30 which can bring in the volume so we have to see if it will take us to the Edge or not but even if it does watch out for slower trading and possibly much smaller range than yesterday as we are near the top of the balance areas on Daily/Weekly also Top of this HTF Range which is spot for selling BUT since we don't have any overhang or supply build up here we can't really expect size sellers to engage to give us big moves lower and at the same time we are floating over Value which tells us size longs wont really want to be putting together position here for continuation since position is already at and under VAL so the only buyers will be trapped shorts who don't have to keep chasing price higher while there is selling from profit taking so it could be a slow back and forth drift even if we do get over 5341 - 36 and push into the Edge.
Comment:
Slow day but in the end we got the Edge bottom test, built supply under it and then once got through 41-36 with Supply built up we flushed it into the buyers or trapped shorts at VAH into 5324.75 - 20 level top of the Mean for this 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range, this was one of the scenarios we expected as mentioned first tests of important areas like an Edge more often than not provide good responses into opposite direction which we got today. We can see we still have buying at VAH because our shorts are trapped in Value of this HTF Range. Good moves are likely done for the day and no news or data tomorrow to bring the volume so we will have see what we will do. We could continue trading between this VAH / Edge area until we can take out Key Resistance again and try another push into the Edge or build up enough Supply to get through 24.75 - 20.75 to fill the buyers lower into VAH bottom at 5310.50 - 06.50 area. For now 5341 - 5290.25 is our range and we trade the levels within.