ES Anticipation Short Entry Bearish Rising Wedge 3950

I have taken an anticipation entry at 4563.75 on the hourly RTH chart using the pattern of a bearish rising wedge in a down channel and the three-push pattern at the top of the wedge.

I am using ATR indicator as well to anticipate a breakout and increased volatility. Volatility expands on a down move. Notice the bullish falling wedge on the ATR signaling a breakout.

I have reason to believe that the market's objective is down there at 3950-4000 area.

My stop loss is a one bar stop above the high of the pin bar of Wednesday November 22nd at 09:30am EST. That gives me a 20 point stop with a potential reward of 500 points. Potential 28:1

This will be a reversal trade. The short term momentum is bullish but the trend is still bearish medium term. Long term I am still bullish to 5250. This will be a counter trend trade to the overall bullish move I am waiting for.

Comment:

The measured move takes it down to 4050 into the peak formation low from earlier this year and to potentially take out stops from the higher level longs. I think 3950 might be a too aggressive target and I will scale it back to around 4080

Comment:

Comment:

Trade active:

Still holding this short down to the 4050-4100 area. Expecting this would be a 3 month hold at least until February

Trade closed: stop reached:

Stopped out. Still have the same thesis just wrong entry/timing