ES In Complex Bull Flag Consolidation Pattern Still Bearish 3950

In this uptrend on the daily chart, price is in a complex flag pattern consolidation. I believe it is about half way through with another leg down to complete the measured move.

The evidence that leads me to believe that this parabolic run up the last few weeks is false is

1. Parabolic run up to stop hunt the shorts that got it right
2. Sucker in more longs
3. Hit gap resistance
4. False break out of the top of the flag channel from a million miles away, The best breakouts happen building up right near the top of the channel, not from the next planet over.
5. The stop losses on all the longs are down there at 4000 area
6. The weekly 200sma, which is rising by the way, is hugging right under the channel bottom in the same direction and degree of slope
7. The peak formation low at the beginning of the year is down there. ES loves to trade into peak formations

Comment:

Here on the weekly chart, you can see the bull flag busted through the 33% mark and is on its way to the 50% mark. Where is that, exactly where I described it. I know I am a broken record with all my posts on this subject, but I have been posting the same consistent idea for months now since late August/early September.

Comment:

Same set up as 1968

Comment:

Daily Chart of 1968

Trade active:

I have been short since November 22nd at 4563.75

Stop above at 4584.00, I am thinking about moving it up 2 points at 4586.00

Target is 4050-4100 area or the weekly 200sma