ES Spike and Channel Back Down To 4100 NOV False Rally
I am expecting this spike and channel to fail any day now as it is falsely breaking out of the top of the channel. Failure of this pattern will put price back inside the down channel.
I am also expecting a substantial move down to 4400 for a false move in a bear flag under the hourly 200sma.
I am then expecting a sharp rally that coincides with the Santa Rally back up into the red resistance line of 4421.00 followed by another leg down to take out November lows and 4100.00
I currently have a short position initiated on November 22nd at 4563.75 with my target at 4100.00
As soon as this spike and channel pattern fails, I am expecting some major selling to come into the market.
In my humble opinion, this parabolic fake rally was just a stop hunt/ short squeeze to get more order flow into the market before another leg down.
I also expect that this will be the last leg down in this complex bull flag consolidation and once we get down to the 50% mark and the weekly 200sma that major buying will come into play for the next 26% rally of about 1100 points to top off at 5250 at/around January 2025.
I am expecting after 5250, a 36% sell off back down to 3150 at/middle of 2026.
Of course, all of this dictates how price will behave at these levels/times but I will be planning my moves based on this plan.
I am also expecting a substantial move down to 4400 for a false move in a bear flag under the hourly 200sma.
I am then expecting a sharp rally that coincides with the Santa Rally back up into the red resistance line of 4421.00 followed by another leg down to take out November lows and 4100.00
I currently have a short position initiated on November 22nd at 4563.75 with my target at 4100.00
As soon as this spike and channel pattern fails, I am expecting some major selling to come into the market.
In my humble opinion, this parabolic fake rally was just a stop hunt/ short squeeze to get more order flow into the market before another leg down.
I also expect that this will be the last leg down in this complex bull flag consolidation and once we get down to the 50% mark and the weekly 200sma that major buying will come into play for the next 26% rally of about 1100 points to top off at 5250 at/around January 2025.
I am expecting after 5250, a 36% sell off back down to 3150 at/middle of 2026.
Of course, all of this dictates how price will behave at these levels/times but I will be planning my moves based on this plan.
Comment:
Projecting the daily 200sma out in the future, I am expecting price to dip below it to hit the channel bottom and all of this major support at 4100 perhaps down to 4000 with a false breakout below.
